💥 50K jobs. 7 days of tech pain.

😎 Market Vibes

☹️ Jobs Report Disappoints as Markets Play Musical Chairs

The U.S. labor market closed out 2025 with a whimper - just 50,000 jobs added in December, marking the weakest year of hiring outside a recession since 2003. Meanwhile, Wall Street is orchestrating a sector rotation that has defense contractors soaring on Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion military budget while tech stocks nurse losses for the seventh straight day. Gold is consolidating near $4,470 as geopolitical drama keeps safe-haven buyers interested, Bitcoin is treading water above $91,000 waiting on a Supreme Court tariff ruling, and the Venezuela situation continues to send ripples through energy markets. It's one of those days where nothing quite lines up - weak jobs, strong GDP, falling unemployment, and money frantically switching seats between sectors.

🤷‍♂️ Jobs Report Lands With a Thud, Markets Shrug

The final jobs report of 2025 hit desks this morning like a wet blanket at a campfire - technically present, but not inspiring anyone. The U.S. economy added just 50,000 jobs in December, missing the 73,000 estimate and capping off what some economists are calling a "hiring recession" despite GDP chugging along at a respectable clip. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% from 4.5%, which sounds notable until you realize it's partly because fewer people are actively looking for work. The labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%, suggesting some folks have decided the couch is more appealing than the job market right now.

Meanwhile, the Fed is navigating this situation like a parent watching their teenager's grades slip. Markets are pricing in two rate cuts this year, but that depends on whether Jerome Powell's successor (his term ends in May) takes a different approach.

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✈️ Defense Stocks Go Full Top Gun

President Trump's announcement of a proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027 - up from the $901 billion Congress approved for 2026 - sent defense contractors into afterburner mode. Lockheed Martin soared over 4%, Northrop Grumman gained more than 2%, and Kratos Defense practically did a barrel roll with a 14% pop. RTX climbed nearly 1%, demonstrating how Wall Street responds to massive government spending announcements.

Meanwhile, tech stocks got the opposite treatment. Nvidia dropped over 2% despite China reportedly approving imports of its H200 chips. Apple slid 1% after JPMorgan agreed to take over the Apple credit card program from Goldman Sachs, marking Apple's seventh consecutive day of losses. The information technology sector as a whole shed more than 1%, with AI names like Oracle pulling back nearly 2%.

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⭐️ Gold Consolidates Near $4,470 as Geopolitics Keep Bulls Interested

Gold traded around $4,470 per ounce this morning, pulling back slightly from recent highs but still sitting pretty after a 3% weekly gain. The yellow metal is holding firm on a cocktail of geopolitical developments - Trump's Venezuela moves, threats about Greenland, and Iranian protest concerns are maintaining safe-haven demand. China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 14 consecutive months in December, which tells observers a lot about institutional positioning in the metal right now.

Fed rate cut expectations are suppressing real yields, making gold's lack of interest payments less of a drawback. Between elevated geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty, and central banks accumulating the metal steadily, gold's bull run shows no signs of exhaustion.

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🌊 Bitcoin Treads Water Above $90K as Tariff Ruling Looms

Bitcoin hovered around $91,000 this morning, maintaining its position above the key psychological level but lacking the momentum to push meaningfully higher. The crypto market is in wait-and-see mode ahead of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's global tariffs, with prediction markets suggesting a high probability the court will strike them down. That uncertainty has traders sitting on their hands rather than making directional bets.

The broader crypto landscape is showing signs of life though. Ethereum is trading around $3,200, up roughly 10% since the start of the year following its successful "Fusaka" upgrade on January 7 that boosted blockchain throughput. XRP has surged approximately 25% in the first week of January to around $2.20, driven by inflows into XRP-focused ETFs and increased attention as a standout asset.

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🏎️ Auto Stocks Rev Higher on Tax Deduction News

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced implementation of Trump's "No Tax on American Car Loan Interest" policy this morning.

Ford jumped 5% to a new 52-week high, General Motors climbed 3% and also hit a new 52-week high, while Honda, Stellantis, and Toyota posted modest gains.

The policy is designed to make car ownership more affordable while supporting domestic manufacturing by limiting the benefit to U.S.-assembled vehicles. It's a two-part approach: stimulating consumer demand while giving American auto plants a competitive edge. The question observers are asking is whether this will actually move the needle on sales or primarily benefit buyers who were already planning to purchase.

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⚡️ Venezuela Saga Continues to Dominate Energy Conversations

Markets are still digesting the implications of the U.S. taking temporary control over Venezuela following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Trump announced plans for long-term control over Venezuelan crude sales, with reports suggesting as much as 50 million barrels could be turned over to U.S. authorities. Oil prices initially dipped on concerns about increased supply but have since rebounded, with Brent crude and WTI each settling higher by more than 4% on Thursday.

The situation is creating ripples across multiple asset classes. Venezuela's 1% share of global oil output limits immediate impact on supply, but the political instability and potential for escalation keeps energy traders attentive. Gold and silver both jumped on safe-haven demand following the news, with geopolitical volatility becoming a consistent driver for precious metals.

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📌 The Bottom Line

The market is navigating through a transitional phase where economic data doesn't quite match up with market action.

Jobs growth is anemic by historical standards, yet GDP is running hot and unemployment ticked lower. Tech stocks are rotating out while defense contractors and automakers are benefiting from government policy. Gold is consolidating gains near record levels, Bitcoin is in a holding pattern, and oil is reacting to Venezuelan developments.

The next few weeks will likely bring more clarity on Fed policy direction and whether this jobs weakness is a temporary blip or the start of something more concerning.

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

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