🔥💰 Amazon just torched $200B

😎 Market Vibes

🫣 Amazon's Brutal Wake-Up Call Sends Tech Running for Cover

If you thought the tech selloff was bad yesterday, this morning brought a fresh serving of pain - with Amazon as the main course. The e-commerce and cloud giant dropped a bombshell after the bell Thursday, announcing plans to spend a jaw-dropping $200 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 - most of it earmarked for AI infrastructure. The stock tanked around 8% in after-hours trading and the damage rippled through Friday's opening. Futures pointed to another painful session with the S&P 500 opening around 6,837 and the Nasdaq sliding lower as investors collectively realized that Big Tech's AI spending spree might be getting out of hand.

Here's the kicker: Amazon actually beat on revenue ($213.39 billion versus $211.33 billion expected) and AWS growth accelerated to 24%. But Wall Street wasn't having it. When your Q1 operating income guidance comes in light and you casually mention doubling your power capacity by 2027, the market tends to ask uncomfortable questions about return on investment. It's like watching someone buy a Ferrari - impressive, but also terrifying when you realize they're financing it.

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🪂 Bitcoin's Free Fall Continues: Welcome to Sub-$65K Territory

Just when you thought crypto couldn't get any uglier, Bitcoin said "hold my cold wallet." The flagship cryptocurrency crashed through multiple support levels, briefly dipping below $61,000 Thursday evening before bouncing back to around $65,900 by Friday morning. That's nearly 30% down for the week alone - the kind of drawdown that makes even hardened crypto veterans reach for the Pepto. Bitcoin is now trading at levels not seen since late 2024, having plummeted from its glorious $126,000 peak in October 2025. The "digital gold" narrative? Let's just say it's having a credibility crisis.

The carnage extended well beyond Bitcoin. Ethereum, XRP, and other altcoins got absolutely wrecked, with over $1 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours. Software stocks and crypto-related equities joined the party, with Coinbase, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), and mining stocks all tumbling more than 10%. The sell-off mirrors the broader tech weakness, demonstrating once again that Bitcoin tends to behave like a leveraged tech play rather than the uncorrelated safe haven its proponents claim. The $70,000 level that many analysts flagged? Obliterated. Now the question is whether $58,000 to $60,000 can hold, or if we're headed even lower into what some are calling the worst drawdown since the FTX implosion.

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🥇 Gold Stages Recovery After Historic Whipsaw Week

After last week's heart-stopping volatility that saw gold plunge nearly 10% and silver collapse 30% in a single day - the biggest one-day drop since 1980 - precious metals are attempting a comeback. Gold sits around $4,870 per ounce Friday, recovering some ground after touching lows near $4,700 earlier in the week. The yellow metal remains up about 8% year-to-date despite the wild swings, with analysts from Goldman Sachs maintaining their $5,400 target and Bank of America going even more bullish at $6,000. Central banks continue hoarding the stuff like it's going out of style, and with good reason - when tech stocks are melting down and geopolitical tensions remain elevated, having some shiny metal in the vault doesn't seem so crazy after all.

Silver also bounced back somewhat, though it remains more volatile than a caffeinated squirrel. The white metal's industrial uses make it extra sensitive to economic conditions, and the recent price action reflects both safe-haven demand and concerns about manufacturing slowdowns.

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🤖 The Great Tech Rotation: When Big Cap Becomes Big Problem

Let's talk about the elephant in the trading room: the magnificent rotation away from mega-cap tech that's been unfolding over the past few sessions. Only 19% of S&P 500 constituents outperformed the index over the past year, but that's jumped to 57% over the last month. Translation? The market is finally getting tired of watching the same five stocks do all the heavy lifting. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down more than 3% over three sessions, with Thursday's session seeing Microsoft crater 5%, Salesforce drop nearly 5%, and Amazon lose over 4% even before its earnings disaster.

The culprit? A toxic cocktail of AI spending anxiety, semiconductor weakness (looking at you, Qualcomm with your 8.4% face-plant), and a dawning realization that maybe, just maybe, these valuations were getting a bit frothy. Meanwhile, cyclical stocks - the industrials, materials, and other "boring" companies that actually make physical things - have been quietly hitting all-time highs. Heavy machinery and transports are ripping, manufacturing data surprised to the upside, and suddenly everyone's remembering that the economy isn't just seven tech companies in a trench coat. The S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average, a line it hasn't closed below since January 20th. If that support breaks, things could get spicy in a hurry.

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👀 Federal Reserve Watch: The Kevin Warsh Factor

Speaking of things keeping markets on edge, let's discuss the Federal Reserve situation. President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has injected fresh uncertainty into monetary policy expectations. Warsh is viewed as more hawkish on inflation - not exactly music to the ears of equity markets that have been pricing in multiple rate cuts. The dollar strengthened on the news, putting additional pressure on commodities and risk assets. Meanwhile, actual Fed officials like Governor Lisa Cook are saying they're not supporting additional cuts right now, prioritizing inflation risks over labor market concerns.

The market is now in this awkward limbo where it's unclear how many rate cuts - if any - we'll get in 2026. Futures markets are showing roughly even odds for a March cut, with the Fed Funds rate sitting at 3.5% to 3.75% after three cuts in late 2025. Trump insists he wouldn't have nominated Warsh if he favored rate hikes, but traders aren't exactly taking that at face value. The whole situation is adding another layer of uncertainty to already jittery markets. When you combine cautious Fed policy with massive AI spending, crypto carnage, and geopolitical tensions, it's no wonder market participants are having trouble sleeping at night.

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🛢️ Oil Takes a Breather as Iran Talks Ease Geopolitical Premium

While everyone's obsessing over tech meltdowns and crypto carnage, the oil market is staging its own drama - just in the opposite direction. WTI crude fell more than 3% Thursday, dropping to around $63 per barrel, reversing a two-day advance as geopolitical tensions got a temporary timeout. The catalyst? Iran confirmed it will hold negotiations with the US in Oman on Friday, suddenly reducing the immediate risk of military conflict and potential supply disruptions. When a country that accounts for about a third of global crude supply signals it's willing to talk instead of fight, traders tend to rethink that geopolitical risk premium they've been pricing in.

But here's where it gets interesting: the relief rally might be premature. There's serious disagreement about the scope of these talks, with Tehran wanting to confine discussions to its nuclear program while Washington is pushing for a broader agenda including ballistic missiles, regional militant support, and human rights.

📌 Bottom Line

Friday's market is serving up a cocktail nobody ordered: Amazon's spending shock, Bitcoin's continued implosion, recovering but still-volatile precious metals, a rotation away from mega-cap tech, oil's geopolitical whipsaw, and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty that could fill a textbook.

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