🎭 Bitcoin's $100K Identity Crisis

Remember when breaking $100K was supposed to change everything for Bitcoin?

Author

Jason Paloma
November 09, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 14 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

🪄 When the Magic Number Stops Working

Remember when breaking $100K was supposed to change everything for Bitcoin? When crossing that six-figure threshold would validate crypto forever, silence the skeptics, and usher in a new era of mainstream adoption?

Well, congrats everyone - we did it! Bitcoin smashed through $100,000 earlier this year, hit an all-time high of above ~$125,000 on October 5, 2025, and Wall Street threw a party that lasted... about five minutes.

Because here's the thing nobody wants to talk about: Bitcoin fell below $100K this week for the first time since June, and it's having a full-blown identity crisis. The coin that was supposed to be digital gold, a hedge against inflation, and the future of money is currently trading around $100,000 and slipping.

Ethereum's under pressure too - trading in the low $3,000s after hitting highs this year and seeing sizeable outflows in some ETFs.

So what happened? Did Wall Street get Bitcoin to $100K just to dump on everyone? Is this the beginning of a prolonged bear market, or just another shakeout before the next leg up? And most importantly - does Bitcoin even know what it wants to be anymore?

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🏃 The Great Institutional Retreat (Or Is It?)

Let's get one thing straight - the institutional money that everyone said would "save" Bitcoin is currently running for the door. Between late October and early November, Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged $1.34 billion in outflows. That's not a typo. Nearly a billion and a half dollars walked away in less than two weeks. However, flows reversed into modest inflows by Nov 7.

But here's where it gets interesting. While U.S. ETFs show volatility and outflows, some firms are still doubling down. For example, MSTR (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to hold a large BTC treasury and expand its strategy.

So what gives? Are institutions abandoning Bitcoin, or are they just rotating? Analysts like Vincent Liu from Kronos Research argue the outflows reflect "institutions trimming risk as leverage unwinds and macro jitters increase" rather than a fundamental loss of faith in crypto. The macro backdrop remains sticky - including rate-cut expectations, liquidity concerns and global uncertainty.

Translation: Wall Street isn't necessarily bearish on Bitcoin long-term - they're just behaving more like traditional allocators: taking chips off the table until clarity improves.

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🛍️ Retail's Revenge (Or Lack Thereof)

Here's the really awkward part: Retail investors - you know, regular people who were supposed to FOMO in once Bitcoin hit $100K - are nowhere to be found. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that "retail spot buyers have been less engaged than prior cycles".

And who can blame them? Long-term holders - the so-called "smart money" that accumulated Bitcoin below $30K - have been distributing like crazy. An estimated $45 billion in selling pressure from whales since October's peak.

Meanwhile, exchange balances continue dropping - 208,980 BTC have left exchanges in the past six months, suggesting strong hands are still accumulating even as prices fall. The volatility has been intense enough to trigger $1.37 billion in liquidations over just 24 hours earlier this week, with overleveraged long positions getting absolutely wrecked.

The technical picture looks equally messy. Bitcoin's RSI plunged to around 33 on daily charts - oversold territory for the first time since February. The 50-day moving average is acting as resistance, and if Bitcoin can't hold above $100,000, analysts are eyeing the $94,000 level as the next major support.

But November is historically a strong month for Bitcoin, averaging about 43% gains over the past decade according to CryptoRank. But past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Here's something wild: NBA legend Scottie Pippen just posted a Bitcoin chart showing a path from $25,000 to $140,000 - right as BTC hovers around $104,000. Some former athlete shilling crypto? Normally we'd laugh. But with historical November seasonality on Bitcoin's side, the timing is at least interesting.

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🌪️ The Ethereum Disaster Nobody's Talking About

If you think Bitcoin is having a rough time, Ethereum is straight-up in crisis mode. ETH is down over 25% over the past 30 days, trading around $3,200 after touching $4,946 earlier this year.

The second-largest cryptocurrency is caught in no-man's land. It's not fast enough to compete with Solana (which, by the way, is seeing ETF inflows even as BTC and ETH bleed). It's not simple enough to compete with Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative. And the promised Ethereum upgrades keep getting delayed - the "Fusaka" upgrade is now eyed for December 3, but nobody seems particularly excited.

The contrarian observation here: Everyone hates Ethereum right now, which historically has been an interesting time to watch. But that only works if you believe in ETH's long-term value proposition, which is... let's say "questionable" given the competition from faster, cheaper networks.

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💧 The Liquidity Crisis Everyone Ignores

One of the under-the-hood issues: liquidity. The Federal Reserve ended its most recent aggressive rate cutting cycle, and markets are still digesting what a high-rate environment means for risk assets like crypto. Institutional allocators remain cautious until they see clarity.

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🤔 So What Happens Next?

Let's be honest: Nobody knows. But we can game out a few scenarios based on historical patterns and current data.

Bull Scenario: Bitcoin holds ~$100K support, institutional flows reverse to inflows, macro clarity improves, and BTC retests or exceeds its high ~$125K later in 2025.

Bear Scenario: Bitcoin breaks below ~$100K support, tests ~$94K or lower, retail panics, institutional allocation staggers, and a prolonged consolidation or decline follows into early 2026.

Sideways Slog: Bitcoin chops between ~$98K-$110K, flows remain mixed, macro remains cloudy, and we end 2025 near current levels.

Key indicators to watch: ETF flows (especially sustained inflows), exchange balances, institutional announcements/treasury holdings, and major macro events (Fed policy, global liquidity shifts).

🎬 Bottom Line

Bitcoin crossed $100,000, achieved mainstream legitimacy through ETFs, got Wall Street's attention, and then immediately fell into an identity crisis. Is it digital gold? A speculative tech asset? A hedge against inflation that somehow crashes when real rates rise?

The truth is Bitcoin is whatever the market decides it is on any given day. Right now, the market has decided Bitcoin is a risk asset that trades like tech stocks, correlates with the Nasdaq, and gets sold when institutions get nervous about macro conditions.

That might change. November seasonality might help. Liquidity could improve. Institutions may decide ~$100K is a bargain. Or Bitcoin could test everyone's stamina by dropping deeper.

Either way, the $100K psychological barrier that was supposed to be a launchpad turned into a ceiling - at least for now. And Bitcoin's having to figure out what it actually stands for beyond just "number go up."

Welcome to crypto in 2025, where nothing makes sense and the price targets are made up. Just like always.

Stay sharp out there.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

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