🚨 Fed Meeting LIVE - Markets on Edge

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🎤 Markets Tread Water as Fed Meeting Kicks Off

Well, well, well. If it isn't another Tuesday where Wall Street collectively holds its breath and pretends it doesn't care what Jerome Powell is about to say.

The real story is the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting that is starting today, January 27-28, with the decision coming Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 97% chance the Fed holds rates steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range. But nobody's watching for a rate cut - they're watching for Powell's final act. With his term expiring in May and Trump reportedly about to name a successor, this meeting has all the makings of a lame-duck session with bonus political theater. Add in tariff threats, shutdown risks, and a VIX that crept to 16.08, and you've got yourself a classic "wait and see" kind of day.

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📊 Earnings Season Delivers a Mixed Bag of Corporate Reality

Remember when earnings were supposed to be the good news this quarter? Yeah, about that. American Airlines reported record $14 billion in fourth-quarter revenue but missed on earnings with just $0.15 per share versus the expected $0.35.. The culprit? A $325 million revenue hit from the government shutdown, because apparently Washington's inability to function now directly impacts your ability to fly to Tampa.

Boeing, on the other hand, posted $23.95 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, beating estimates of $22.6 billion. CEO Kelly Ortberg told staff there's "a lot to be optimistic about," which is corporate-speak for "we're still building planes and they're not falling apart mid-flight anymore." Meanwhile, UnitedHealth shares got demolished, dropping 12-14% after releasing soft revenue guidance and getting blindsided by Medicare rate news that made market observers question the health insurance business model in 2026.

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📉 Bitcoin Flirts with Sub-$88,000 as Crypto Winter Vibes Return

Bitcoin continues its unceremonious slide, falling to as low as $86,000 when CME futures opened Sunday, though it's since recovered slightly to trade around $87,000 since. The drop triggered over $224 million in liquidations in 24 hours, with $68 million in bitcoin-tracked futures alone getting vaporized.

CoinDesk notes the 100-week moving average at $87,145 is now the key support level, and if that breaks, analysts are eyeing a trip back to the April 2025 lows near $76,000. With the Fed meeting underway and tech earnings season heating up, bitcoin is trading like the high-beta risk asset it always was, except without the meme energy to prop it up. Welcome to 2026, where even crypto bros are checking macro calendars.

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🏆 Gold Smashes Through $5,000 Like It Owns the Place

Speaking of gold, the yellow metal has officially entered "I told you so" territory. Gold rose to over $5,080 per ounce as of today, while JM Bullion showed the live spot price at $5,102.38 per ounce as of Tuesday morning. This isn't just a rally - it's a full-blown panic flight to safety, fueled by tariff threats, government shutdown risks, geopolitical chaos, and a general sense that paper assets might not be the best place to park wealth right now.

Goldman Sachs just raised its year-end 2026 target to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900 previously, citing "sticky" hedges against macro and policy risks.

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🩺 Healthcare Stocks Get Crushed by Medicare Rate Reality Check

If you thought Tuesday would be boring, UnitedHealth, Humana, and CVS Health would like a word. Shares of these healthcare giants plunged after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed raising 2027 Medicare Advantage payment rates by a measly 0.09%.

Humana fell 18% and CVS shed 8.9% as market observers processed what near-flat reimbursement rates mean for an industry already dealing with higher-than-expected medical costs. UnitedHealth's official release showed 2026 revenue guidance at greater than $439 billion, a 2% year-over-year decline that marks the first time in a decade the company has projected declining revenue. The silver lining? At least they're being honest about it.

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💵 Trump Tariff Threats Keep Markets Guessing on Trade Policy

Just when you thought the tariff news cycle might take a breather, President Trump spent the weekend reminding everyone that trade war is still very much on the menu. He threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada makes a trade deal with China, then he pivoted to raising tariffs on South Korean autos, pharmaceuticals, and lumber from 15% to 25% because Seoul's legislature hasn't approved a trade deal fast enough.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by essentially saying "we weren't going to do that anyway," which is the diplomatic equivalent of a shrug emoji. But markets aren't buying the calm act - Schwab's market update showed the VIX jumped 4% on Monday to 16.77, and safe-haven flows pushed gold to record highs. The shutdown threat is back too, with Senate Democrats threatening to block a $1.2 trillion funding bill over Homeland Security funding disputes. It's giving March 2025 vibes, and nobody wants a sequel to that mess.

📌 Bottom Line

Tuesday's market action is basically Wall Street playing poker with a terrible hand while trying to look calm. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are all treading water as the Fed's two-day meeting kicks off today, with the decision coming Wednesday. Market observers know the meeting probably won't include a rate cut, but it might include some Powell drama given his May exit. Earnings are a mixed bag - Boeing beats, American Airlines disappoints, and healthcare stocks get obliterated by Medicare rate news. Bitcoin is flirting with disaster below $88,000, while gold is living its best life above $5,100, fueled by every crisis du jour from tariff threats to shutdown fears.

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✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

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