Fireworks, FOMO & Fed Watch

Don't blink, or you'll miss the next rate cut rumor.

Author

Jason Paloma
July 03, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

Good morning, market watchers.
It's the last trading day before the long weekend, and Wall Street's lighting sparklers early. Jobs came in hot, crypto's having a moment, and stocks are drifting higher like nobody wants to rock the boat. It's low volume, high vibes - just don't blink, or you'll miss the next rate cut rumor.

🎆 Fireworks, FOMO & Fed Watch

  • 📈 S&P 500 Opens at 6,246.46: Stocks tiptoe into the long weekend with the S&P 500 opening at 6,246.46. Traders are keeping it chill ahead of next week's CPI drop and Q2 earnings blastoff.

  • 📊 Jobs Report Comes in Hot: June payrolls rose by 147,000, beating expectations and dropping the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Good news for Main Street - but it may push Fed rate cuts further down the runway.

  • 📊 Nasdaq Opens Soft at 20,497.66: The Nasdaq tracked QQQ's open near 546 - tech's holding steady, but traders are already zoning out ahead of the long weekend. AI names look tired, and next week's CPI could shake things up.

  • 🪙 Bitcoin Pops to $109K: BTC broke north and is now eyeing $110K. Risk-on or just pre-holiday boredom rally? Either way, crypto bros are vibing.

  • 🧪 Ethereum Rips 6% to $2,598: ETH is putting on a show ahead of the Fourth - blasting through resistance with a 6% jump. Will fireworks fly or is this the fake-out top?

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💸 Trade Talk

Crypto's cooking again - and not just in your group chat. Bitcoin's back near $110K, ETH ripped 6% overnight, and the degens are waking up early. But don't mistake boredom rallies for conviction. This market loves to trap just before the holiday hangover hits.

🧠 Big Brain Energy

📊 Stat of the Day: The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, topping forecasts and pushing unemployment down to 4.1%.

Rate cuts? Not with this labor market - Jerome's definitely ghosting July.

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The Senate vote Wall Street was watching

Two events in one week tell you everything:

Event 1: Senate passes GENIUS Act 68-30. First federal crypto framework ever.

Event 2: Iran ceasefire triggers $107K Bitcoin breakout. $350M shorts crushed.

What the headlines won't tell you: Smart money was positioned before both events. They didn't react to the news—they anticipated it.

How? They follow patterns. Market cycles. Institutional flows.

The next pattern is forming now. 

🧨The Outrage Meter

Market Absurdity: Oil prices plunged 12% last week, marking the steepest weekly decline since March 2023.

Snarky Take: Turns out, geopolitical tensions aren't as bullish for oil as traders hoped-guess the war premium expired.

🤔What Do You Think?

June jobs smashed expectations - what's your read?

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