👑 Golden Chaos: When $4,000 Becomes the New Normal

We need to talk about what just happened in markets this week

Author

Jason Paloma
October 19, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

👑 Golden Chaos: When $4,000 Becomes the New Normal

Grab your coffee (maybe add a shot of something stronger) and settle in, because we need to talk about what just happened in markets this week. While Washington fiddles as Rome burns—literally, the government shutdown just hit week three—one asset quietly became the star of 2025: gold.

We're not talking about a nice little rally here. Gold absolutely obliterated the $4,000-per-ounce barrier this week, hitting $4,253 and leaving stocks, bonds, and basically everything else in the dust. It's up roughly 45% year-to-date. That's not a typo. That beats the S&P 500 (up ~15%), the Nasdaq-100 (~19%), and even Nvidia's ~35% gain.

When a shiny rock that produces zero revenue outperforms Silicon Valley's finest, something interesting is happening.

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⛔️The Government Shutdown Nobody's Talking About

Here's the wild part: markets are at all-time highs while the government can't even tell us what inflation is. The shutdown means no CPI data, no jobs reports, no nothing. The Fed is supposed to make rate decisions at their October 28-29 meeting, and they're flying completely blind.

It's like trying to land a plane with all the instruments turned off. Sure, you might nail it, but nobody's taking bets.

Meanwhile, the Fed minutes from September dropped this week, revealing that roughly half of officials expect three rate cuts by year-end. Markets loved it—the Nasdaq broke above 23,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday. But here's the kicker: how can they confidently cut rates when they literally don't have the data to know if they should?

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🫘 When Soybeans Become Weapons

If you thought 2025 couldn't get weirder, President Trump threatened a cooking oil embargo on China this week. Yes, you read that correctly. Cooking. Oil.

But here's where it gets interesting: crop stocks actually rallied on the threat. Bunge jumped 4%, Archer-Daniels-Midland climbed 3%. When trade war escalations make agricultural stocks go up instead of down, you know we're through the looking glass.

The average tariff on Chinese goods now sits at 40%, with another wave coming November 1st. That's not a trade policy—it's economic warfare dressed up in a suit.

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🏦 Banks Are Eating While Tech Gets Nervous

Earnings season kicked off with a plot twist nobody saw coming: banks performed well while tech stocks got shaky.

Meanwhile, Amazon dropped 5%, Nvidia faced competitive pressure, and Intel got downgraded by HSBC. The script has officially flipped.

Why are banks thriving? The IPO market is reopening, M&A activity is surging, and deregulation hopes are high. It turns out that when you combine strong stock markets with easing regulations, investment banks post strong quarters.

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🤫 Small Caps Stage a Quiet Revenge

This is called market breadth, and it's notable. When only a handful of mega-cap tech stocks are driving gains, that's one type of market. When hundreds of stocks across multiple sectors are rising together, that's a different picture entirely.

The deregulation narrative is fueling small-cap optimism. These companies benefit disproportionately when regulatory burdens ease, and with a business-friendly administration, traders are pricing in a friendlier environment.

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🃏 The Crypto Wildcard

That's noteworthy. Previous crypto crashes sent Bitcoin spiraling significantly lower (remember the "it's going to $10,000" crowd?). This time? It held above six figures.

We're in "Uptober"—historically crypto's strongest month—heading into Q4, which has produced some of crypto's biggest annual gains. Institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Fidelity were quietly accumulating during the dip while retail traders panicked.

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Bottom Line

Gold breaking $4,000 isn't just a milestone—it's a message. When traders pile into an asset that produces no cash flow, pays no dividends, and generates zero earnings, they're expressing something about their view of everything else.

The government shutdown, trade wars, banking sector strength, small-cap resurgence, and crypto resilience—they're all pieces of the same puzzle. Markets are recalibrating for a new reality where the old playbooks might not work anymore.

The next few months will be interesting. Q4 historically delivers crypto's biggest gains. Bank earnings are exceeding expectations. Small caps are showing momentum. And gold? Well, gold just became the new normal at $4,000-plus.

The market environment is shifting—how traders respond will vary based on their individual strategies and risk tolerance.

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

⚠️ WARNING: Market data is subject to rapid change. Verify current information before making trading decisions.

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