💼 Jobs Data Throws Markets a Curveball (But Not a Bad One)

😎 Market Vibes

💼 Jobs Data Throws Markets a Curveball (But Not a Bad One)

Well, well, well - someone needs to tell the labor market that it's supposed to be resilient. ADP just dropped a bomb this morning showing that private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, when economists were expecting a gain of 40,000. That's not just a miss - that's missing the dartboard entirely and hitting the wall behind it.

Small businesses got absolutely hammered, shedding 120,000 jobs - the biggest drop since March 2023. Meanwhile, larger companies with 50+ employees actually added 90,000 positions, creating this weird corporate version of "The Hunger Games" where size apparently matters a lot. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson called the November slowdown "broad-based" and blamed it on employers "weathering cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment." Translation: Everyone's playing it safe while they figure out what 2025 will actually look like.

Here's the plot twist though - markets loved this bad news. The S&P 500 jumped 0.30% to close at 6,849.72, the Nasdaq gained 0.17%, and the Dow surged 0.90%. Why? Because weak jobs data means the Fed is more likely to cut rates at their December meeting, and traders are now pricing in a 72% chance of a quarter-point cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

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🏅 Small-Cap Stocks Finally Get Their Moment

Remember when everyone was obsessed with mega-cap tech and forgot small-caps existed? Well, the Russell 2000 just reminded everyone it's still in the game, surging 1.91% today. That's almost 2% in a single session - not bad for the index that spent most of 2024 playing second fiddle to the Magnificent Seven.

The small-cap rally isn't random. These companies are way more sensitive to interest rate changes than their bigger cousins, so when the Fed signals they're ready to ease up, small-caps get a turbo boost. Plus, with all the talk about a "broadening" market where leadership isn't just Nvidia and friends, investors are finally remembering that thousands of other stocks actually exist.

Today's move pushed the Russell 2000 to 2,512.14, clawing back some dignity after getting crushed earlier in the week. Banks led the charge, with Wells Fargo and Citi both jumping around 3.5% on hopes that lower rates will juice lending activity. UnitedHealth also popped 4.7%, probably because healthcare stocks love certainty, and a December rate cut provides exactly that.

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🛍️ Retail Earnings: The Good, The Meh, and The "Wait, What?"

Earnings season's final act delivered some interesting plot twists this morning. Dollar General crushed expectations, raising its full-year profit forecast and sending shares up 4% in premarket trading. The discount retailer now expects earnings per share between $6.30 and $6.50, up from its previous range of $5.80 to $6.30. Turns out when inflation squeezes wallets, people flock to dollar stores faster than you can say "value shopping."

Kroger, on the other hand, served up a mixed bag that had investors scratching their heads. The grocery giant posted earnings of $1.05 per share, slightly beating the $1.03 estimate, but revenue of $33.9 billion was basically flat year-over-year and missed analyst expectations of $34.1 billion. Shares dropped about 3% in premarket trading because apparently, Wall Street wanted champagne but got sparkling water instead.

The real story in retail? Value is king. Five Below also popped after reporting record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend sales, with CEO Winnie Park noting they've seen "really nice traffic growth" from both new customers and repeat buyers. American Eagle Outfitters shares surged 11% after calling their holiday start "excellent." The message is clear: consumers are spending, they're just being picky about where.

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🦾 Tech Stocks Stay Resilient Despite Rate Jitters

While small-caps were having their moment, big tech quietly held its ground. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.17% to close at 23,454.09, proving once again that mega-cap tech has more lives than a cat in a video game. Microsoft actually dropped 2.5% after reports surfaced (and were quickly denied) about cutting AI sales quotas, but the broader tech sector shrugged it off.

Apple continued its hot streak, jumping 2% to hit a new 52-week high. The iPhone maker has been on an absolute tear lately, and today's move just added to the momentum. Meanwhile, Salesforce shares popped after the business software company raised its outlook, topping analyst expectations. Not all tech fared well though - Snowflake stock tumbled after its AI data cloud revenue guidance fell short, proving that in this market, you're only as good as your next quarter.

The tech sector's resilience is interesting considering the 10-year Treasury yield has been creeping higher, which typically isn't great for growth stocks. But when you're sitting on mountains of cash and generating profits like Nvidia or Apple, a few basis
points of yield movement is like worrying about a paper cut during a marathon.

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🤝 Crypto Catches a Bid (Again)

Bitcoin bounced back today after the Japan-induced wobble, trading around $93,500. The world's largest cryptocurrency seems to have found solid support in the low-$90,000s, even as concerns about a potential Bank of Japan rate hike continued to float around. Ethereum also participated in the party, jumping 5.86% to around $3,181, finally showing some signs of life after weeks of relative underperformance.

The crypto rebound coincided with broader risk-on sentiment driven by those dovish Fed expectations. When traders think rate cuts are coming, they tend to pile into higher-risk assets like crypto, growth stocks, and whatever Elon tweets about that day. Bitcoin has now recovered most of its losses from earlier in the week when hawkish comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda triggered fears of another "yen carry trade" unwind.

Interestingly, some analysts are predicting Bitcoin could hit $180,000 by the end of 2026, according to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. XRP also joined the recovery, gaining 1.82% and holding above the $2.20 level. The broader takeaway? Crypto volatility isn't going anywhere, but neither is institutional interest apparently.

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💵 Treasury Yields Hold Steady as Fed Decision Looms

The 10-year Treasury yield traded around 4.085% today, basically treading water as investors balanced weak jobs data against still-elevated inflation concerns. The 2-year yield sat near 4.28%, reflecting market expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week but might pause in early 2025.

Bond markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster lately. Yields surged earlier in the year as economic data kept coming in stronger than expected, then pulled back as recession fears crept in, then surged again when those fears proved overblown. It's been exhausting, frankly. The fact that yields are holding relatively steady now suggests traders have mostly priced in one more cut this year followed by a "wait and see" approach in 2025.

The big question is whether we're entering a new regime where yields stay elevated even as the Fed cuts rates. That would be weird but not impossible, especially if growth remains solid and inflation stays sticky. For now, the bond market seems content to wait for Friday's official jobs report before making any big moves.

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🎬 Bottom Line

Today was one of those days where bad news became good news, and markets reminded us that nothing matters more than Fed policy. Weak jobs data? No problem - just means cheaper money is coming. Small-caps finally got some love, big tech kept grinding higher, and crypto did what it does best: bouncing back when you least expect it.

The real story is that we're entering the home stretch of 2024, and positioning for next year is already starting. Between tariff talk, Fed policy uncertainty, and the usual year-end games, the next few weeks should be interesting. Keep your eyes on Friday's official jobs report - if it confirms today's weakness, that December rate cut is basically locked in.

Stay sharp out there.

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