🏁 Markets Cling to Optimism as Shutdown Deal Inches Toward the Finish Line

Wall Street opened Tuesday in cautious mode...

Author

Jason Paloma
November 11, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

🏁 Markets Cling to Optimism as Shutdown Deal Inches Toward the Finish Line

Wall Street opened Tuesday in cautious mode, with the S&P 500 dipping 0.1% and the Nasdaq falling 0.5% after Monday's strong rally that saw the S&P surge 1.54%. Following 41 days of government shutdown chaos - the longest in U.S. history - the Senate passed funding legislation late Monday night, sending it to the House for what could be a Wednesday vote. The breakthrough came after eight centrist Democrats broke with party leadership to advance the deal, which extends government funding through January 2026 and reinstates laid-off federal workers. Not everyone's thrilled with the compromise (progressive Dems are calling it capitulation), but the path forward is finally clear. With air travel still snarled and SNAP benefits caught in legal limbo, investors are watching whether Congress can actually close the deal.

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🌝 Bitcoin Bounces Back While Gold Holds Above $4,100

Bitcoin is hovering around $104,500 this morning after staging a modest recovery, showing cautious optimism following institutional inflows and MicroStrategy's latest buying spree. Ethereum is holding firm near $3,900, buoyed by anticipation around the Ethereum Foundation's AI-focused 2026 roadmap. The real star of the crypto show is XRP, which climbed 2% to $1.12 after the SEC cleared the Canary XRP ETF - institutional investors are watching this one closely as the Nasdaq-approved ETF could start trading any day. Meanwhile, gold continues its stratospheric run, trading at $4,135 per ounce - up nearly 60% from a year ago. When everything else feels uncertain, the yellow metal just keeps doing its thing.

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🛢️ Oil Limps Along While Tech Gets a Shutdown Reprieve

Crude oil prices remain stuck in a descending channel, with WTI trading around $59.96 per barrel - down 12% from a year ago. The energy complex is dealing with weak Chinese demand, OPEC+ production restraint, and a general supply glut that's keeping prices subdued despite geopolitical tensions. Capital Economics is forecasting crude at $60 per barrel by year-end and $50 by the end of 2026, which means gas station relief might be coming (eventually). On the brighter side of the commodity spectrum, tech stocks are catching a bid as the shutdown deal removes one major overhang - Amazon rallied after announcing a $38 billion cloud deal with OpenAI, and chipmakers like Micron and Nvidia rallied on data center infrastructure news.

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⏳ The Fed's Waiting Game Continues

With the government shutdown dominating headlines, Federal Reserve policy has taken a backseat - but it hasn't gone away. The central bank is in wait-and-see mode, with rate cut probabilities dropping to 63% for December (down from over 90% just weeks ago). The latest jobs data showed private payrolls added 42,000 positions, beating the 30,000 forecast, which suggests the labor market isn't collapsing but isn't exactly booming either. Consumer sentiment hit its lowest level in more than three years at 50.3, reflecting shutdown anxiety and inflation worries. The Fed is stuck between economic data that's "okay-ish" and a political environment that's absolute chaos - not exactly the clear sailing Jerome Powell was hoping for.

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🏦 Small Caps and Regional Banks Get Some Love

While mega-cap tech grabs most of the attention, small-cap stocks and regional banks are quietly having a moment. The Russell 2000 added 0.34% on hopes that a shutdown resolution could unlock spending and improve sentiment for domestically-focused businesses. Regional bank stocks are benefiting from the steepening yield curve - the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries is widening, which typically improves bank lending margins. It's not a massive rally, but after getting pummeled for most of October, these beaten-down sectors are showing signs of life. Investors rotating out of overvalued AI names are finding opportunities in profitable companies that don't trade at 50x sales.

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📉 CoreWeave Drops 9% After Weak Outlook

Speaking of AI infrastructure, CoreWeave shares fell 9% after the company issued weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance and announced data center delays. The stock dropped below $100 for the first time since September, a brutal reminder that even AI-adjacent plays aren't immune to execution risk. CoreWeave provides AI infrastructure and competes with Amazon to rent out Nvidia GPUs - basically, they're the middlemen in the AI gold rush. But when you promise billions in capacity and then hit delays, Wall Street gets nervous fast. The selloff also dragged down other mining and infrastructure plays, demonstrating that in 2025, "AI" isn't a magic word that guarantees stock performance.

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🎬 Bottom Line

Tuesday's market action reflects a collective exhale - not quite celebration, but definitely relief that the shutdown nightmare might actually end. The S&P 500 grinding 0.15% higher, Bitcoin stabilizing above $104K, and gold holding near record highs all point to "cautious optimism" being the mood of the day. With the House expected to vote Wednesday, we're one step closer to normalcy (or whatever passes for normal in 2025). Watch how markets react if the deal actually passes - sometimes the anticipation is better than the reality.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

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