🛍️ Markets Close Early, Retail Goes Full Throttle

Just three and a half hours for traders to make questionable decisions before the long weekend kicks in...

Author

Jason Paloma
November 28, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 14 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

🛍️ Markets Close Early, Retail Goes Full Throttle

Welcome to the most conflicted day in American capitalism. Markets open at 9:30am and close at 1:00pm ET - just three and a half hours for traders to make questionable decisions before the long weekend kicks in. Meanwhile, retail is operating at maximum velocity, with shoppers hunting deals both online and in malls nationwide.

Black Friday 2025 online sales are projected to hit ~$11.7 billion, up 8.3% from last year, according to multiple forecasts. That's billion with a B, and it's all happening while most traders are already planning their exits.

Light volume is the name of the game today. With fewer market participants trading after the holiday, individual orders can move prices more dramatically than usual. It's like trying to play poker with half the table gone - every hand matters more.

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💡 Black Friday By the Numbers: Reality Check Edition

The forecasts are ambitious, but there's a darker undercurrent running through this year's holiday shopping season. Here's what the data actually shows:

The $1 Trillion Milestone: Holiday retail sales from November through December are expected to top $1 trillion for the first time, growing between 3.7% and 4.2% according to the National Retail Federation. That sounds impressive until you realize the growth rate is slowing from last year's 4.8%.

Cyber Week Dominance: About 9% of all holiday retail sales will happen between Black Friday and Cyber Monday - the highest seasonal concentration Bain & Company has ever tracked. This five-day period is expected to see 11% year-over-year growth, far outpacing the overall 4% holiday forecast.

The Spending Paradox: Here's where it gets interesting. A record 186.9 million shoppers are expected to hit stores and websites from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, up from 183.4 million last year. But - and this is a big but - consumers are planning to spend 4% less than last year, according to Deloitte.

More people shopping, less money spending. That's not a typo, that's an economy under stress.

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🛒 Consumer Confidence: The Real Story

Consumer confidence hit one of the lowest levels on record in November, according to the University of Michigan's sentiment survey. It's just slightly above the June 2022 low when inflation was soaring.

The spending cuts aren't uniform either. Consumers making under $50,000 annually are planning to spend 12% less, while those earning over $200,000 plan to cut spending by 18%. Even the wealthy are tapping the brakes.

Rising costs of living, inflation anxiety, and tariff uncertainty are all weighing on shoppers. Consumer spending represents about 70% of U.S. GDP, which makes this retail data more than just a shopping story - it's an economic indicator with teeth.

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🏅 Retail Winners and Losers: The Battle Lines Are Drawn

The gap between retail's haves and have-nots has never been wider.

Walmart: The Juggernaut

Walmart crushed Q3 earnings last week, with revenue up 5.8% to $179.5 billion and U.S. comparable sales rising 4.5%. The stock jumped 6.5% even as the broader market tumbled. Walmart's stock is up more than 18% in 2025, and it's showing no signs of slowing down.

The secret? E-commerce sales now account for 18% of total revenue, up from 14.3% in 2023. Walmart has turned its 4,600 U.S. stores into same-day fulfillment hubs, enabling 93% of households to receive deliveries in under 24 hours. They've also built a massive digital advertising business through Walmart Connect, growing ad revenue 31% year-over-year.

Middle-income families are flocking to Walmart for deals, and even higher-income shoppers are trading down to save money. When the discount king starts attracting the country club crowd, you know the economy is pinching.

Target: The Struggle is Real

Target's Q3 comparable sales dropped 2.7%, driving overall revenue down 1.5% to $25.3 billion. The company cut its full-year profit guidance and announced plans to lay off 1,800 corporate employees.

While Walmart's stock has more than doubled over the past few years, Target stock has been nearly cut in half. The problem? Target is known for discretionary goods while Walmart dominates necessities. When budgets tighten, people skip the cute home decor and head straight for cheaper groceries.

Amazon: The Digital Behemoth

Amazon's Black Friday deals run from November 20 through November 28, featuring discounts up to 55% on home products and major savings across electronics, toys, and beauty. The company hosted its most successful Black Friday in 2024 and boasts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer - a title it's held for nearly a decade.

Amazon's logistics advantages are borderline unfair. The company can outprice competitors while maintaining healthy margins, and its international presence gives it tailwinds beyond just the U.S. holiday season.

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💭 What This Means for Your Portfolio

If you're holding retail stocks, today's action matters. Strong Black Friday sales typically boost market sentiment, particularly across retail and consumer discretionary sectors. The data serves as a real-time economic indicator.

But remember the shortened session. With markets closing at 1pm, any moves will be compressed into a tight timeframe. Thin liquidity can amplify volatility in either direction.

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👀 Weekend Watch: Crypto Keeps Moving

While U.S. equity markets close for the weekend, cryptocurrency trades 24/7/365. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets will keep churning through Saturday and Sunday, creating opportunities (and risks) that don't pause for American holidays.

Weekend crypto volatility is its own beast - lighter volume, thinner order books, and the potential for dramatic swings when news breaks and traditional markets can't react.

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🎬 Bottom Line

Black Friday 2025 is a study in contradictions. Record shopper counts meeting reduced spending. Massive online sales projections against a backdrop of consumer anxiety. Walmart soaring while Target flounders.

The takeaway? Americans are still shopping, but they're choosing carefully. Necessities trump discretionary spending. Value beats curation. And companies that can deliver both low prices and convenience are running away with the game.

For traders, today's shortened session is more about positioning than profit-taking. Real insights will come from actual Black Friday sales data over the weekend and early next week. Until then, enjoy the three-and-a-half-hour trading window and maybe hit those sales yourself.

Markets resume regular hours on Monday, December 1, when Cyber Monday data starts rolling in and everyone remembers that December is historically a strong month for equities. But that's a story for another newsletter.

Happy Black Friday. May your deals be deep and your trading commissions minimal.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

⚠️ WARNING: Market data is subject to rapid change. Verify current information before making trading decisions.

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