💤 Markets hit snooze after Dow's 50K party

😎 Market Vibes

🥣 Markets Serve Up Cold Oatmeal to Start the Week

After Friday's adrenaline-fueled rally that saw the Dow explode past 50,000 for the first time, Monday's opening bell delivered... exactly what you'd expect after a sugar rush: a mild hangover. Think of it this way: Friday's market was like that friend who shows up to brunch after three espressos and orders the entire menu. Monday's market? That same friend nursing black coffee and wondering if they really needed to buy commemorative Dow 50K merch.

The culprit behind this morning's cautious mood? A data-heavy week looming like an awkward family dinner, complete with the delayed January jobs report on Wednesday and January CPI inflation data dropping Friday. Add in a rotation away from tech stocks that's making software names sweat, and you've got a recipe for sideways trading while everyone waits to see what the economic tea leaves reveal.

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🏓 Gold Goes Parabolic While Bitcoin Plays Ping-Pong

Speaking of things that make no sense until they suddenly do: gold rallied over 1% Monday morning to surge above $5,020 per ounce, hitting its highest level in over a week. The yellow metal is riding a wave of dollar weakness, geopolitical "maybe we'll talk it out" vibes from US-Iran negotiations, and the market's growing suspicion that the Fed might actually cut rates once or twice this year to juice a cooling job market.

Gold opened Monday around $5,003, which is absolutely wild considering that just weeks ago it was flirting with record highs before getting hammered in late January's liquidation cascade. The rebound has been powered by weaker-than-expected US labor data, with jobless claims hitting 231K and January job cuts reaching 108.4K - the highest for the month since 2009. Translation? The labor market is acting like it just got ghosted, and gold investors are loving every second of it.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues its impression of a caffeinated squirrel. After crashing below $66,000 last week, rebounding above $70,000 Friday, and trading around $68,600 this morning, BTC is giving everyone whiplash while Ethereum hovers near $2,000 after its own brutal selloff.

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👀 Tech Stocks Get the Side-Eye Treatment

If you were wondering why Monday feels like someone pressed the "mute" button on market enthusiasm, look no further than Tech Land. Microsoft edged up 0.8% in premarket, but that was the bright spot in an otherwise gloomy semiconductor alley. Nvidia slipped 1.1%, Broadcom fell 1.3%, Alphabet declined 0.7%, and Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla each lost around 0.4%.

The rotation out of software and into "old economy" stocks that started last week shows no signs of slowing down. Industrials, materials, energy, and consumer staples are all partying like it's 1999 - the pre-dot-com-bubble 1999, not the during-it version. The S&P Equal Weight index hit a fresh all-time high Friday, which tells you everything you need to know: money is spreading out faster than gossip at a high school reunion.

The big question hanging over tech like a storm cloud? Earnings skepticism. Amazon's disappointing report and eyebrow-raising $200 billion CapEx forecast sent shockwaves through the AI infrastructure story. When the company everyone assumed had unlimited money announces it's going to spend even MORE unlimited money, investors start asking uncomfortable questions like "when do we see returns on this?"

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🎉 Earnings Season Continues Its Chaotic Parade

The earnings circus rolls on this week with a lineup that could move markets or bore them to tears, depending on how creative these companies get with their guidance. Coca-Cola reports Tuesday, with analysts expecting revenue around $12 billion (up 4% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of 57 cents (3.6% growth). UBS has a buy rating with an $82 price target, which sounds thrilling until you remember we're talking about sugary beverages.

Wednesday brings McDonald's and Cisco, followed by Thursday's parade of Applied Materials and Arista Networks. The real heavyweight comes February 25 when Nvidia reports, and Goldman Sachs is already predicting a $2 billion revenue beat because apparently Nvidia isn't allowed to just meet expectations like a normal company.

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📊 Fed Watch Intensifies as Data Week Looms

Here's where things get interesting in a "please don't make me do math on a Monday" kind of way. The market is currently pricing in one or two Fed rate cuts for 2026, with the first potentially arriving in June if the economic data cooperates. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly helpfully suggested Friday that rate cuts "may be necessary" to address weakening labor market conditions, which is Fed-speak for "yeah, we're probably cutting rates but let's pretend we're still thinking about it."

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.21%, down slightly from last week's 4.24%, while the 30-year yield hovers at 4.86%. These are the kinds of numbers that make bond traders nod knowingly while the rest of us wonder if we should care.

The bigger picture? The labor market is sending mixed signals like a teenager trying to explain why they're home past curfew. We've got job cuts surging, jobless claims rising, and ADP payrolls coming in at a measly 22,000 in January - well below expectations. If Wednesday's official jobs report confirms this trend, the "Fed will cut rates" narrative could possibly get louder.

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🇨🇳 China Throws a Curveball at Treasury Markets

In news that probably should have gotten more attention: reports emerged that Chinese regulators have urged domestic financial institutions to curb their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over "concentration risks and market volatility." Which is diplomatic language for "we're nervous about something and want to reduce our exposure."

This development adds another layer of complexity to an already complicated market narrative. China has been a major holder of US debt for years, and any significant selling could push Treasury yields higher, which would make borrowing more expensive for everyone from the US government to homebuyers. The timing is particularly interesting given that the dollar index has been strengthening and gold has been rallying on safe-haven demand.

Translation for normal humans? The global financial plumbing is making weird noises.

📌 Bottom Line

Monday's trading session feels like the market is taking a deep breath before plunging into a week of potentially market-moving data releases. The rotation from tech to cyclicals continues unabated, gold is on a tear thanks to Fed cut expectations, crypto is doing its best impression of a pinball, and everyone's waiting to see what the jobs report and CPI data reveal about the economy's true health.

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✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

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