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- 🎄 Markets Hit Snooze Button as Gold Steals the Show
🎄 Markets Hit Snooze Button as Gold Steals the Show
Wall Street's on autopilot heading into Christmas, but three stories actually matter...
Jason Paloma
December 23, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes
😎 Market Vibes
Wall Street's on autopilot heading into Christmas, but three stories actually matter: Gold just notched its 50th record high of 2025 (up 70% for the year), GDP came in way hotter than expected at 4.3%, and Novo Nordisk's new weight-loss pill got FDA approval. Oh, and Bitcoin's still stuck below $90K while $28 billion in crypto options expire Thursday. Here's what's moving before everyone checks out for eggnog.
✨ Markets Keep the Holiday Spirit Alive as Tech Leads Third-Straight Winning Day
The major indices opened with modest gains Tuesday, extending their winning streak to three sessions as traders settled into the holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 opened around 6,865, the Dow started near 48,400, and the Nasdaq kicked off trading around 23,450. It's the trading equivalent of that awkward office party where everyone's already mentally checked out but still pretending to care about quarterly projections.
Tech stocks continue to do the heavy lifting - because apparently, we've all decided that AI chips are the new Santa Claus. Nvidia's plans to ship H200 chips to China in February kept momentum going from Monday's session, while Oracle and Micron Technology also stayed in the green. The VIX dropped to around 14, suggesting market observers are feeling about as nervous as a kid on Christmas Eve who already knows what's under the tree.
Market Insight: The VIX, or "fear index," measures expected volatility over the next 30 days. A reading below 15 is typically considered low volatility, indicating market observers expect relatively calm trading conditions ahead - though holiday-shortened weeks often see artificially low readings due to reduced trading volume.
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🏆 Gold Just Won't Stop Breaking Records (and Bitcoin Refuses to Break $90K)
Gold futures opened Tuesday at a record-shattering $4,481.80 per ounce, marking the 50th time this year the yellow metal has hit all-time highs. That's right - gold has broken records more times in 2025 than your uncle has told the same story at Thanksgiving. The precious metal is up over 70% year-to-date, putting it on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979. Silver's having an even wilder ride, more than doubling in 2025.
The drivers? Take your pick - US pressure on Venezuela (we're now pursuing a third oil tanker), expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026, and a US dollar that's had its worst year since 2017. When geopolitical chaos meets monetary policy uncertainty, gold becomes the financial equivalent of a bunker with snacks.
Gold Market Insight: Central banks have been significant buyers of gold in recent years, with the rally underpinned by robust central bank purchases and sustained ETF inflows. This institutional buying has provided a stable foundation beneath retail investor demand, distinguishing this rally from purely speculative surges.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is hovering around $88,000 after briefly touching $89,000 earlier. The crypto is down about 1% on the day and remains roughly 30% below its 2025 peak. With around $23 billion in Bitcoin options and $3.8 billion in Ethereum options expiring December 26th, traders are bracing for post-holiday volatility.
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💊 Novo Nordisk's Wegovy Pill Gets FDA Approval, Stock Jumps
Novo Nordisk shares surged over 7% in premarket trading after the FDA approved the company's oral version of Wegovy, making it the first GLP-1 pill approved for weight management in the US. The Danish drugmaker is hoping this pill version will help it claw back market share from rival Eli Lilly, after a rocky 2025 that included sliding shares and slowing sales of the injectable version.
The approval comes at a crucial time - Novo has been watching Eli Lilly eat its lunch in the weight-loss drug market, and compounded versions of these medications have been flooding the market like knockoff handbags in Times Square. The pill showed an average weight loss of about 17% in trials, which is noteworthy given that it still requires daily administration.
GLP-1 Market Context: The FDA's approval gives Novo a boost as the company looks to claw back ground lost to US rival Eli Lilly. The oral formulation could expand the addressable market beyond those comfortable with injectables, though Novo has seen slowing sales of its injectable Wegovy amid intensifying competition, including from compounded versions.
This development highlights how the obesity drug market continues to evolve rapidly as pharmaceutical companies race to capture market share in this multi-billion dollar category.
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📈 GDP Surprise: Economy Grew Faster Than Anyone Expected
The Commerce Department revealed Tuesday that US GDP expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3 - way above the 3.2% economists expected. Consumer spending jumped 3.5% in the quarter, up from 2.5% in Q2, proving that Americans kept spending even as economists debated recession timing.
The report was delayed from its originally planned October 30th release because of the record-breaking government shutdown, which makes you wonder what other economic data is currently sitting in a filing cabinet somewhere waiting for Congress to remember it exists.
Economic Context: The stronger-than-expected GDP reading creates a potential conflict for the Federal Reserve. Robust economic growth typically argues against rate cuts, yet markets are currently pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, amid signs of easing inflation and a cooling labor market. Delayed PCE price index updates for July, August, and September are also expected this week, providing additional data points for rate-cut speculation.
Stock futures dipped slightly after the strong GDP reading, as market observers recalibrated expectations around the Fed's 2026 policy path.
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📊 Fed Rate Cut Bets Remain Mostly Intact Despite Strong Data
Despite the stronger-than-expected GDP reading, traders are still betting on two quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026. Last week's data showed a surprise drop in inflation and a lukewarm labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.6% - which apparently was enough to keep the rate-cut expectations alive.
The delayed PCE price index data for July, August, and September is also expected this week, giving market observers more data for their favorite pastime - wildly speculating about what Jerome Powell will do next. It's like fantasy football, but for monetary policy nerds.
Federal Reserve Context: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, has been delayed due to the government shutdown. These readings will provide crucial context for the Fed's inflation assessment as policymakers balance strong economic growth against their 2% inflation target. The timing is particularly significant as markets will shut early on Wednesday for the Christmas Eve start of the holidays, and will be closed all of Thursday for Christmas Day.
With markets closing early Wednesday at 1 PM ET and staying shuttered all day Thursday for Christmas, the real question is whether anyone will actually be paying attention to economic data or if they'll be too busy assembling toys and pretending fruitcake is edible.
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📌 The Bottom Line
Tuesday's trading kicks off with modest gains as markets digest surprisingly strong GDP data while keeping rate-cut hopes alive for 2026. Gold continues its historic rally, Bitcoin stays stuck below $90K, and Novo Nordisk gets a boost from FDA approval of its weight-loss pill.
With holiday-shortened trading ahead and consumer confidence data on deck, traders are balancing end-of-year positioning with macro uncertainty. The S&P 500 remains within reach of fresh records, proving that nothing - not even confusing economic signals - can stop the year-end rally when traders have already mentally checked out for eggnog.
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