🤸🏻 Markets Set to Extend Thursday's Rebound

😎 Market Vibes

🤸🏻 Markets Set to Extend Thursday's Rebound

U.S. stock futures edged higher Friday morning as Wall Street prepared to build on Thursday's solid gains. After Thursday's session saw the Dow rise 0.6% to close at 49,403, the S&P 500 gain 0.26%, and the Nasdaq add 0.25%, futures pointed to continued optimism heading into Friday's open. The week's narrative has been dominated by a powerful one-two punch: blockbuster bank earnings and renewed AI enthusiasm.

Goldman Sachs surged 4.6% Thursday after reporting quarterly profits that sailed past expectations, powered by robust dealmaking activity. Morgan Stanley climbed 5.8% on similar strength. But the real star of the show has been semiconductors, where Taiwan Semiconductor's Thursday pop of 4.4% following a monster Q4 earnings report sent shockwaves through the chip complex. TSMC's plans to boost 2026 capital spending to $56 billion reinforced the market's faith that AI demand isn't just hype - it's a multi-year buildout with real capital commitments. Nvidia, AMD, Applied Materials, and Micron all jumped, proving that when TSMC speaks, the entire semiconductor ecosystem listens.

Adding to the positive mood, weekly jobless claims came in lower than expected and manufacturing data from both New York and Philadelphia regions beat forecasts, suggesting the economy isn't rolling over just yet. The setup for Friday? Futures climbing, chip momentum intact, and banks like PNC and State Street set to report before the bell.

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💪 Bitcoin Holds Above $95K in Tight Range

Bitcoin traded around $95,300 Friday, consolidating in a narrow range after Thursday's modest 1% dip. The flagship cryptocurrency is grinding through the $95,000-$97,000 zone that's become home for the past several sessions. The 24-hour trading range squeezed between $95,134 and $97,193, with volume at $21.99 billion showing decent liquidity but no conviction moves in either direction.

Bitcoin's up about 5% year-to-date, having climbed from $90,000 levels in early January. But the lack of follow-through after that initial pop suggests traders are waiting for a catalyst. The $97,000 resistance level has proven sticky, while support at $95,000 has held firm.

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🏆 Gold Retreats from Record After Profit-Taking

After kissing fresh all-time highs earlier this week, gold futures pulled back to around $4,590 per troy ounce Thursday as profit-taking kicked in. The precious metal had been on an absolute tear, with gold briefly hitting $4,650 per ounce before cooler heads prevailed. The pullback came after Trump's comments suggesting a softer stance on Iran, with the president saying reports indicated the crackdown on anti-government protesters was easing and that large-scale executions weren't planned.

That reduced some of the safe-haven premium that had been baked into gold's recent rally. Still, let's keep perspective here: gold remains up about 5% year-to-date, continuing its momentum from 2025's monster gain.

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📉 Oil Plunges Nearly 5% as Iran Risk Premium Evaporates

WTI crude crashed almost 5% Thursday to around $59 per barrel, marking its sharpest single-day drop since October. Brent crude slipped to around $63.40 in a parallel move that wiped out much of this week's geopolitical risk premium.

The selloff came after Trump softened his stance on potential military action against Iran, saying he'd been assured that large-scale executions of protesters wouldn't proceed. The reduced geopolitical risk premium wiped out much of this week's gains, though oil prices remain supported by Venezuelan supply disruptions.

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🤞 Treasury Yields Steady as PPI Data Reinforces Fed Cut Hopes

The 10-year Treasury yield held around 4.15% Thursday, maintaining its remarkably narrow trading range. Bond market watchers noted that yields have been stuck between 4.1% and 4.2% since mid-December, with the median weekly range for the past five weeks coming in under 10 basis points - the longest comparable stretch since 2020.

That kind of compression typically precedes a breakout, but which direction remains unclear. November producer prices came in softer than expected, with core PPI flat on the month, reinforcing the tame December CPI report.'

The cooler inflation data has kept Fed rate cut expectations alive, with rate futures showing market observers split between expectations of two or three cuts this year, exceeding policymakers' median projection of just one. But some Fed officials remain cautious, warning that inflation pressures may be more persistent than currently anticipated.

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📈 Small Caps Extend Historic Outperformance Streak

The Russell 2000 beat the S&P 500 for a 10th straight session Thursday - the longest streak since 1990. That's not a typo. Small caps, which spent much of 2025 playing second fiddle to mega-cap tech, are suddenly the market's unlikely heroes.

The small-cap index ended 2025 up less than 12%, underperforming the S&P 500's 16%+ gain. But 2026 is telling a different story. The rotation reflects several dynamics: expensive valuations in mega-cap tech making some market observers nervous, the prospect of Fed rate cuts (which typically benefit smaller companies with floating-rate debt), and signs that economic growth remains solid enough to support domestically-focused businesses.

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📌 Bottom Line

Friday's setup finds markets in better spirits after Thursday's rebound snapped a two-day losing streak.

The week's narrative - strong bank earnings plus AI optimism courtesy of TSMC's blowout report - has provided enough fuel to keep bulls engaged despite lingering concerns about Fed independence and geopolitical uncertainties.

Have a great weekend!

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✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

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