🏅 Monday Morning Reality Check: Markets Try to Remember How to Win

Markets are opening Monday morning like someone who hit snooze one too many times...

Author

Jason Paloma
November 17, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

🏅 Monday Morning Reality Check: Markets Try to Remember How to Win

Markets are opening Monday morning like someone who hit snooze one too many times - futures are slightly positive, but nobody's quite sure if they're awake yet. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.6%, Nasdaq futures are climbing close to 1%, and the Dow is adding around 0.2% as traders stumble back to their desks after Friday's mixed close that felt less like progress and more like treading water.

Let's be real - last week was about as decisive as a group text trying to pick a restaurant. The S&P 500 basically went nowhere (down 0.05%), the Nasdaq eked out a 0.13% gain that could've been a rounding error, and the Dow dropped 0.65% like it forgot how percentages work. After a month where November's been treating tech stocks like yesterday's leftovers, markets are eyeing this week with the enthusiasm of someone checking their bank account after holiday shopping.

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📉 Bitcoin's Below-$100K Identity Crisis (Again)

Bitcoin is having one of those "I swear I used to be cooler" moments, trading around $95,400 this morning after dipping below the psychologically important $95,000 level like it's testing how low it can limbo. The world's favorite digital asset has shed about 25% from its October high above $126,000 - which, if we're being honest, is starting to look like that one time in high school you peaked too early at homecoming.

The crypto king spent last week playing ping-pong with the $95K support level, and traders are split between "this is a healthy correction" and "abandon ship." Bitcoin futures are showing modest gains this morning, but let's not pretend $95,000 is a comfortable place to hang out when you were flirting with $110,000 just weeks ago. The real question isn't whether Bitcoin can bounce - it's whether institutional money will keep showing up to the party.

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🥱 Gold Takes a Breather (But Stays Bougie)

Gold is trading around $4,080 per ounce this morning, which sounds expensive until you remember it hit $4,370 just last month and decided gravity still applies to precious metals. The shiny stuff has pulled back about 6% from its October peak, but let's keep some perspective - it's still up more than 55% year-to-date, which is the kind of performance that makes index funds look lazy.

The gold market is basically that friend who complains about being tired after running a marathon - yeah, you're down from your all-time high, but you're still crushing it compared to everyone else. Traders are watching whether gold can hold above the $4,000 psychological level as safe-haven demand battles with profit-taking. With inflation still sticky, geopolitical tensions simmering, and central banks worldwide continuing to stack gold bars, the longer-term trend still points up.

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🔨 Home Depot Earnings: Will the Orange Apron Deliver?

The real story isn't what Home Depot did last quarter - it's what management says about the future. If executives signal even a whisper of improvement heading into 2025, the stock could catch a bid. But if the guidance stays tepid and the housing market commentary sounds like a broken record, expect the selloff to continue. One analyst already downgraded Home Depot from Buy to Hold with a reduced price target, citing a home improvement market that's flatter than a pancake and likely to get worse before it gets better.

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The “Other” AI Revolution

Most people think AI is just about chatbots and semiconductors. But Alexander Green says another branch of artificial intelligence – one that works in a completely different way – could be just as, if not more, disruptive. A little-known company at the center of it has already attracted some of the smartest backers in Silicon Valley. And Alex believes it could be on the cusp of widespread adoption. In fact, he’s so convinced that he’s scooped up thousands of shares with his own money. Watch his short presentation here.

🔥 Tech's Month from Hell Might Finally Be Over

Remember when tech stocks could do no wrong? Yeah, November doesn't. The Nasdaq has shed roughly $1.74 trillion in market value over the past two weeks as the rotation out of Big Tech has been more brutal than a reality TV elimination round. Meta is down 23% from its August highs, Nvidia has dropped 10% from its late October peak, and Palantir fell 16% from its early November record - all while the market tries to figure out if AI spending is sustainable or if we're witnessing the world's most expensive pivot to nowhere.

The culprits are the usual suspects: fading hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts, profit-taking after a monster run, and the dawning realization that spending billions on AI infrastructure only works if someone actually makes money from it eventually. Add in some leveraged traders getting liquidated when prices dipped, and you've got a recipe for the kind of volatility that makes day traders need extra coffee.

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🎤 Fed Speakers This Week: Because Markets Love Mixed Signals

With the economic data calendar still light thanks to the recent government shutdown aftereffects, traders are bracing for a wave of Federal Reserve commentary this week. Multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak, and the market will hang on every word like it's a podcast where your financial future is discussed in passive-aggressive tone.

Here's what everyone wants to know: Is December's rate cut still on the table, or did the latest inflation numbers and stronger-than-expected jobs data kill that dream? Current odds have shifted dramatically - what was once considered a slam dunk for another 25 basis point cut is now looking more like a coin flip. The VIX jumped 14.2% on Thursday and surged another 10% Friday morning, which tells you everything about market confidence levels right now.

The bigger picture is that the Fed's path forward is murkier than a swamp, and traders hate nothing more than uncertainty. With rate cuts potentially on pause and inflation refusing to cooperate, the question isn't just about monetary policy - it's about how long markets can keep grinding higher without the Fed's support.

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Crypto Skeptic Has Stunning Change of Heart

He used to make fun of crypto. He called it “fake internet money.” Now… he says one $3 crypto could rise to $92 by next year. Why the sudden change of heart? It has to do with NINE new ETFs… Trump’s announcement of the crypto strategic reserve which mentioned this $3 crypto FIRST… And a major shift in the financial system. Watch this crypto skeptic explain how he calculated the $92 price target here.

✂️ Netflix's Stock Split and Other Monday Distractions

Netflix's 10-for-1 stock split officially kicks in at Monday's open, which means the streaming giant that closed around $1,100 pre-split will now trade closer to $110. Does this change anything fundamental about the company? Absolutely not. Will it create some confusion, volatility, and algorithmic hiccups at the open? Absolutely yes.

Stock splits are basically financial cosmetic surgery - same company, different look. Netflix says the move is designed to make shares more accessible for employees in stock option programs and, presumably, for retail investors who think $1,100 per share sounds expensive (newsflash: you can buy fractional shares). Expect some price wobbles as orders adjust, watchlists update, and traders who forgot about the split frantically Google "why is Netflix down 90%."

Elsewhere in Monday morning weirdness, Forward Industries is changing its ticker from FORD to FWDI, which will definitely not cause any confusion whatsoever. Expect volatility as the market sorts out which Ford you're actually trying to buy.

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🎬 Bottom Line

The Fed commentary this week will either calm nerves or send the VIX into the stratosphere - probably both on different days. And somewhere, institutional traders are already planning their Thanksgiving exit strategies because nothing says "holiday spirit" like booking profits before the calendar turns.

Stay sharp, stay skeptical, and remember: the market's job is to confuse as many people as possible before it decides where it's actually going.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

⚠️ WARNING: Market data is subject to rapid change. Verify current information before making trading decisions.

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