Mortgage Rates Are Falling... So Why's Nobody Buying?

😎 Market Vibes

It's Fed Day, housing's a mess, and Workday just got its activist glow-up. We're staring down the first rate cut of 2025 - but Powell's vibes might matter more than the move itself. Meanwhile, mortgage rates are falling, but homebuyers are ghosting. Let's get into the chaos.

🤔 Fed‑on‑the‑fence jitters

• 🪙 Rate Cut Watch: The Fed's expected to trim by 25bps today, marking its first move of 2025. Powell's press conference could swing the whole market vibe - whisper "more cuts coming" and risk assets will party.

• 🏡 Mortgage Rates Just Hit 6.39%: The lowest since Oct '24… Refi demand exploded +57.7% last week, but homebuilders aren't celebrating yet.

• 🚧 Housing Starts Down 7%: Despite rate relief, permits also dropped - buyers are frozen, builders are discounting, and the "soft landing" narrative is looking leaky.

• 📉 Consumer Sentiment Drops to 4‑Month Low: Lower and middle-income households are flashing early warning signs: job worries and sticky inflation expectations creeping back in.

• 📊 Big Movers Today: Workday surged ~9‑10% after Elliott disclosed a big stake. Nvidia quietly slid, partially tied to regulatory pressure in China.

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💸 Trade Talk

The market's about to hinge on how dovish today's Fed messaging is. If Powell drops hints of multiple cuts ahead, cyclical, housing, and financials could pop. But one misstep-any inflation qualm or weak job spin-and the rally could reverse.

🧠 Big Brain Energy

Workday ripped nearly 10% after Elliott dropped a surprise stake. Apparently all it takes to wake up sleepy enterprise stocks is activist money and a well-timed press leak. SaaS is back... until it isn't.

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🧨The Outrage Meter

Builders are lowering prices and offering deals while mortgage rates fall. That's how bad demand is. Think about that: rates drop, but buyers still aren't biting. Inventory, job fears, and general economic malaise are doing more damage than interest rates. Housing bubble talk? Probably not yet. But it's getting messy.

🤔What Do You Think?

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