🎃 Powell's Halloween Trick: Maybe No More Rate Cut Treats

Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped a hawkish bomb Wednesday that's still echoing through markets.

Author

Jason Paloma
October 31, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

☁️ Amazon's Cloud Flex Sends Tech Soaring - While Fed Chair Plays Grinch

Markets woke up Friday with a major tech hangover cure - Amazon dropped earnings that made Wall Street forget all about yesterday's Meta-induced panic attack. The e-commerce titan's stock popped 12% in premarket trading after reporting 20% revenue growth in AWS, its cloud computing cash machine. That's nearly $300 billion added to Amazon's market value faster than you can say "Alexa, order more champagne."

Apple joined the party with its own beat-and-raise routine, forecasting holiday quarter sales growth of 10-12%. Tim Cook practically told investors to write Santa early because demand is running hot. These two earnings bombs sent S&P 500 futures up 0.7% and Nasdaq futures surging 1.3% before the opening bell, setting up what could be the sixth straight winning month for major indices.

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🎃 Powell's Halloween Trick: Maybe No More Rate Cut Treats

Speaking of spoiling the party, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped a hawkish bomb Wednesday that's still echoing through markets. After delivering the quarter-point rate cut everyone expected, Powell hinted it might be the last one of 2025, noting "strongly differing views" among his colleagues and "a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle."

Bitcoin didn't love this vibe, slipping 0.5% to around $109,700 as crypto traders processed the news that easy money might be taking a break. The entire crypto market cap dipped 1.5% to $3.7 trillion, with Ethereum down 0.8% to $3,852 and liquidations hitting $890 million in 24 hours - most of it from overleveraged long traders betting rates would keep falling.

Gold futures opened at $4,012 per ounce, hanging tough near historic highs despite the stronger dollar headwind. The yellow metal has climbed more than 50% year-to-date, positioning 2025 as gold's strongest year since 1979. When Powell talks hawkish, observers note flows to real assets.

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🫘 Trump-Xi Trade Truce: Soybeans Are Back, Baby

Presidents Trump and Xi concluded their Thursday meeting with an actual deal, not just photo ops and diplomatic platitudes. The U.S. agreed to slash China's fentanyl tariffs from sky-high levels down to 10%, while Beijing delayed its rare earth export restrictions by a full year. Trump confirmed China will resume buying U.S. soybeans and increase purchases of American energy.

Markets yawned slightly - the deal was largely priced in - but the easing of trade tensions removes a major headwind that's been lurking in the background. Remember that flash crash on October 10th when Trump threatened 100%+ tariffs? Bitcoin shed $200 million in market cap and plunged nearly 10% in hours. This time, cooler heads prevailed.

Oil markets barely budged on the news, with WTI crude holding around $60.46 per barrel, down just 0.18% on the day. Brent crude traded at $64.55, up a modest 0.28%. Energy traders are more focused on OPEC+ production decisions and U.S. inventory data than diplomatic handshakes.

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💻 Yesterday's Tech Bloodbath: What Actually Happened

Thursday was brutal for megacap tech. Meta crashed 11% after investors freaked out about ballooning AI spending plans. Microsoft slipped 3% on similar concerns. Even Nvidia caught a 2% haircut as traders rotated out of expensive growth names. The S&P 500 dropped 0.99% to close at 6,822.34, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.57% to 23,581.14.

But here's the plot twist - while tech melted down, old-economy names absolutely crushed it. Goldman Sachs alone lifted the Dow by about 140 points. Visa, Sherwin-Williams, JPMorgan, and Caterpillar each added roughly 40 points to the index. The Dow only fell 0.23% precisely because these five stocks carried the entire index on their backs.

This rotation from growth to value, from tech to industrials, from momentum to fundamentals - it's what happens when markets get nervous about valuations. The S&P 500's market breadth is narrowing fast, with only 47% of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. That's not exactly a strong foundation for markets sitting near all-time highs.

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⚡️ Energy Earnings: Big Oil Delivers Big Numbers

Exxon and Chevron both reported solid Q3 results Friday morning, giving energy bulls something to cheer about in an otherwise mixed sector. These results came as oil prices have been consolidating in a descending triangle pattern throughout 2025, bouncing off support around $56.48 and now testing resistance near the $65-67 range.

The energy sector continues to navigate choppy waters - balancing strong demand signals against recession fears and increasing competition from renewable energy. The EIA reported a 6.9 million barrel reduction in crude stockpiles earlier this week, larger than expected and supportive of prices. But with U.S. crude production hitting record highs above 13.6 million barrels per day in July, supply concerns aren't exactly keeping traders up at night.

Natural gas is a different story entirely, with Henry Hub spot prices forecast to climb from under $3.00 per MMBtu in September to $4.10 by January 2026. Cold winter, anyone?

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👻 Crypto Corner: Fear Index Territory

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slid five points to 29, firmly in "fear" territory - which contrarian traders know is often the best time to accumulate. Bitcoin's consolidation around $109,000-$111,000 isn't panic selling; it's healthy digestion after a monster run that saw BTC hit new all-time highs above $125,000 earlier this month.

On-chain data shows something fascinating: while 37,000 small investors sold their positions in the past ten days, 231 new wallets holding more than 10 BTC were created. Translation? Retail is capitulating while whales are accumulating. This pattern has historically preceded major rallies.

Solana held relatively steady at $185, down just 0.3%, while XRP fell 1.4% to $2.48. The entire crypto space is waiting to see if Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the $125,000 zone, which would require sustained confidence from both institutional and retail traders.

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🎬 Bottom Line

Amazon and Apple just reminded everyone why you don't bet against American innovation. Even with the Fed pumping the brakes on rate cuts, corporate America is printing money and guiding higher. Yes, valuations are stretched. Yes, market breadth is narrowing. Yes, we're overdue for a correction. But until the music actually stops, this party keeps going - especially with Big Tech showing it can still deliver growth that justifies those nose-bleed multiples. Gold's holding near records, oil's consolidating, crypto's cooling off but not breaking down, and observers note rotations from momentum to value. Happy Halloween - the only thing scary about these markets is how resilient they've been.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

⚠️ WARNING: Market data is subject to rapid change. Verify current information before making trading decisions.

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