🔴 Red Tuesday: Markets Open in the Danger Zone as Bitcoin Crashes and Nvidia Jitters Spread

Well, well, well - if it isn't another morning where your portfolio decided to cosplay as a falling knife

Author

Jason Paloma
November 18, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

🔴 Red Tuesday: Markets Open in the Danger Zone as Bitcoin Crashes and Nvidia Jitters Spread

Well, well, well - if it isn't another morning where your portfolio decided to cosplay as a falling knife. The major indices opened Tuesday looking like they'd been through a blender: the S&P 500 stumbled out of bed at 6,641.19, the Nasdaq dragged itself to 22,565.90, and the Dow managed a groggy 46,382.92. Translation? We're looking at losses across the board as traders brace for what might be the most consequential earnings report of the year.

Here's the thing - this isn't just your garden-variety selloff. This is what happens when the entire market holds its breath waiting for one company to either save or sink the ship. And that company? Nvidia, reporting earnings Wednesday after the bell. The AI darling is down nearly 2% in premarket, and when the stock that represents 8% of the S&P 500's market value catches a cold, everyone starts sneezing.

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📉 Bitcoin's Nightmare Scenario: Digital Gold Becomes Digital Lead

Remember when Bitcoin was flirting with six figures and crypto bros were planning their Lambo colors? Good times. Fast forward to today, and BTC just face-planted below $90,000 for the first time since April, currently trading around $91,000 after touching a low of $89,400. That's a cool 27% haircut from October's peak of $126,000, officially erasing every single gain the cryptocurrency made in 2025.

The Fear & Greed Index? It's screaming "extreme fear" louder than your portfolio after checking today's opening prices. Even El Salvador's president is out here "buying the dip" with a fresh $100 million BTC purchase - which shows continued conviction in the asset despite market turbulence.

But here's where it gets spicy: Bitcoin isn't just falling - it's experiencing pressure while some notable investors have exited positions. Peter Thiel's hedge fund dumped its entire $100 million Nvidia stake. SoftBank unloaded $5.8 billion worth of NVDA shares. When billionaires start repositioning their AI chip holdings, market observers take notice.

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💾 The Nvidia Catch-22: Damned If They Do, Damned If They Don't

Here's your weekly reminder that the entire tech sector's fate rests on the shoulders of one chip company reporting earnings on Wednesday. No pressure, Jensen Huang.

The Street's expecting Nvidia to post a 17% quarter-over-quarter revenue jump to $54.9 billion. Sounds great, right? But there's a twist. According to Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster, even a "beat and raise" scenario may not necessarily be positive for the broader AI trade. "The cross currents around next week's earnings set up a Catch-22 for the AI complex, because stronger guidance can amplify worries about overspending, while a modest raise can be read as the first sign that growth is normalizing faster than expected," he noted.

The setup couldn't be more dramatic. Nvidia briefly became a $5 trillion company last month - the first ever to hit that milestone. Now it's down 12% from all-time highs, trading around $184, and Wall Street analysts are debating the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.

Oh, and did we mention CEO Jensen Huang casually dropped that Nvidia has $500 billion in orders for 2025-2026 combined? That's not a typo. Half a trillion dollars worth of chip orders. The market is now digesting what this means for the pace of AI buildout and data center spending.

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🃏 Rate Cut Roulette: The Fed's December Dilemma

Remember a month ago when the market was 94% certain the Fed would cut rates in December? Those were simpler times. Now? We're down to 45% odds of a cut according to CME FedWatch, which in Fed-speak means "coin flip territory."

The culprit? Economic data that refuses to cooperate with Wall Street's narrative. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey just jumped to 18.7 - way above the expected 6. That's the kind of surprise that complicates the Fed's decision-making when inflation is still hovering around 3%, stubbornly above that 2% target.

Adding to the complexity: we're finally getting delayed economic data after the 43-day government shutdown ended on November 12. Thursday brings the September jobs report, which will be the first major economic reading in weeks.

The market's already pricing in the possibility of no December cut, which explains why the VIX (Wall Street's fear gauge) jumped 13% Monday and Bitcoin is having an existential crisis. When risk assets start selling off in unison, it's usually because traders are repositioning for a less-friendly Fed environment.

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🔧 Home Depot's Reality Check: Even Retail Giants Feel the Pinch

While everyone's obsessing over AI chips and crypto crashes, Home Depot just delivered a sobering reminder that the real economy still matters. The retail giant posted mixed Q3 earnings and promptly cut its full-year profit forecast, sending shares down more than 3% in premarket trading.

Here's what's interesting: Home Depot isn't collapsing - they actually raised sales growth expectations. But they're navigating headwinds that reflect broader consumer spending patterns. The results suggest shifts in consumer behavior around big-ticket purchases and home improvement projects.

This matters more than you might think. Home Depot is often seen as a bellwether for consumer confidence and housing market health. When HD cuts guidance, it sends a signal about consumer sentiment that market participants watch closely.

The broader retail sector will be in focus this week, with multiple earnings reports expected to shed light on consumer spending ahead of the holiday season. Home Depot's results are one data point in understanding retail dynamics.

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✨ Gold Glitters While Everything Else Burns

In a sea of red, at least one asset is holding its ground: gold. The precious metal continues trading near its historic highs above $4,000 per ounce, currently around $4,079. After briefly breaking the $4,200 level recently, gold has pulled back but remains well-supported on dips.

Why is gold performing relatively well while stocks and crypto face pressure? Because when uncertainty rises, investors often gravitate toward traditional safe-haven assets. The combination of Fed uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and general market volatility has contributed to gold's resilience.

Technical analysts note that gold reversed its short-term uptrend after breaking below key support at $4,095-$4,080, with the next bearish target at $3,945-$3,935. But even with that pullback, gold's year-to-date performance stands out compared to many other assets.

The gold story also ties into the broader "de-risking" theme playing out across markets. When Bitcoin experiences sharp declines, stocks stumble, and the Fed looks less dovish, gold's appeal as a store of value becomes more apparent to market participants.

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🎬 Bottom Line

Here's what market participants are watching: Nvidia's earnings could provide clarity on AI infrastructure spending sustainability. Thursday's jobs report will inform Fed rate cut expectations for December. And Bitcoin needs to stabilize after breaching the $90,000 level.

For now, Tuesday's message is clear: risk appetite has diminished, uncertainty is elevated, and the next 48 hours could shape market sentiment for the remainder of November.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:

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