🏅Retail Earnings: Winners, Losers, and the Holiday Reality Check

This morning delivered a split decision from big-box retail...

Author

Jason Paloma
November 19, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 14 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

🛑 Markets Pump the Brakes (Again) As Nvidia Looms Large

The major indices opened Wednesday with a tentative bounce after four straight days of bleeding. The S&P 500 kicked off trading around 6,645, up 0.4% from Tuesday's bruising close, while the Nasdaq jumped 0.5% and the Dow added a modest 0.2%. But let's be real - nobody's celebrating this pop just yet. With the VIX still hovering above 23 and traders eyeing today's Nvidia earnings like it's the final boss in a video game, this morning's green is less "bullish breakout" and more "nervous fidgeting."

Bitcoin's clinging to the $91,000 level after briefly dipping below $90K earlier this week - a seven-month low that wiped out all of 2025's gains. Gold's holding steady around $4,110 per ounce, and oil's trading near $60 per barrel. Translation: safe-haven plays are still getting love while risk assets are sweating bullets.

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🏅Retail Earnings: Winners, Losers, and the Holiday Reality Check

This morning delivered a split decision from big-box retail. Lowe's crushed expectations and jumped 5% in premarket trading, powered by stronger online sales and professional contractor demand. TJX Companies (parent of T.J.Maxx and Marshalls) also beat estimates with $1.28 per share on $15.1 billion in sales, lifting shares nearly 3%.

Then there's Target, which slashed its full-year profit guidance and basically waved a red flag about the holiday season, citing "cash-strapped consumers struggling with affordability for food, healthcare, and housing." Target stock dropped 2% before the bell, confirming what many observers suspected - not everyone's feeling festive about their wallet situation heading into Black Friday.

The divergence tells a story: shoppers are hunting for deals and contractors are still spending, but mainstream consumers are tightening belts faster than retailers can pivot. With Walmart earnings coming Thursday, expect another data point on whether holiday cheer translates to holiday spending.

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🛟 The $4 Trillion Question: Can Nvidia Save the Rally?

Let's cut to the chase - tonight's Nvidia earnings report isn't just another quarterly print. It's a referendum on whether the AI trade has legs or whether we've been sprinting toward a cliff. Nvidia now makes up over 7% of the S&P 500's weighting, meaning its returns don't just influence sentiment - they ARE sentiment.

Analysts expect Nvidia to post Q3 revenue of $55 billion and EPS of $1.25, both up more than 54% year-over-year. Options traders are pricing in a 7.69% move in either direction, and with shares down 27% from October's all-time high above $126, there's a lot riding on CEO Jensen Huang's outlook for AI infrastructure spending.

The real tension? Recent weeks have seen growing anxiety about whether hyperscalers can sustain the massive capex required to keep feeding Nvidia's growth machine. If guidance disappoints or even stays flat, observers anticipate broader market turbulence. If Nvidia delivers another beat-and-raise, markets might finally see that relief rally everyone's been watching for.

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🎭 Crypto's Identity Crisis Continues

Morgan Stanley's calling this Bitcoin's "fall season" in its four-year cycle, noting that investors are considering harvesting gains while institutional caution builds. The "crypto winter" warnings from major Wall Street strategists are dampening sentiment fast, especially as the Fed's December rate cut odds have dropped to around 47%.

Meanwhile, gold is absolutely flexing on Bitcoin this year. While Bitcoin's down roughly 2-3% for 2025, gold futures have ripped more than 50% since January. That's a stunning reversal from the "digital gold" narrative that dominated 2024. Turns out when macro uncertainty hits, people still reach for the shiny stuff that's been around for millennia.

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⏳ Fed Minutes on Deck (Because We Needed More Uncertainty)

As if Nvidia earnings weren't enough drama for one day, the Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes drop this afternoon. Markets will dissect every word for clues about December's rate decision, which currently sits at coin-flip odds according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The recent weakness in stocks coincides with falling rate cut expectations - chances of a December cut have dropped from over 80% in early November to just 47% now. That shift reflects sticky inflation data, a resilient labor market, and Fed officials openly questioning whether they need to keep easing.

If the minutes reveal more hawkish sentiment than expected, observers anticipate potential for another leg down across risk assets. If they leave the door open for December, that might provide markets with some clarity heading into year-end.

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🎬 Bottom Line

Wednesday's trading is all about waiting - waiting for Nvidia, waiting for Fed minutes, waiting to see if this four-day selloff finally exhausts itself or morphs into something uglier. The morning's modest gains suggest investors aren't ready to capitulate, but they're definitely not ready to go all-in either.

Retail earnings painted a mixed picture of consumer health, Bitcoin's testing major support levels, and the AI trade's poster child is about to tell us whether the hype was justified. Between now and tomorrow's Walmart print, we'll learn a lot about where markets are headed into December.

One thing's certain: if you're not scanning the landscape for what's actually moving - not just what's making headlines - you're playing catch-up. Stay sharp, stay informed, and maybe don't go making any bold bets until after the closing bell.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

⚠️ WARNING: Market data is subject to rapid change. Verify current information before making trading decisions.

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