Retail's Not Dead-It's Selectively Shopping

😎 Market Vibes

Wall Street's in full hold-your-breath mode this morning as Jerome Powell preps his annual Jackson Hole sermon. Will he bless the bulls or ghost the rate-cut crowd again? Meanwhile, Nvidia's playing geopolitical Twister, the 10-year is dancing at 4.32%, and retail earnings are all over the map. It's one of those days where vibes might move markets more than fundamentals - again.

🫣 Everyone’s holding their breath

• 📢 Jackson Hole Takes the Mic at 10am ET: Fed Chair Powell speaks today from Wyoming, and markets are begging for dovish breadcrumbs. Rate cut odds are slipping, but one soft word could send risk assets flying.

• 📈 Dow Eyes Bounce After Three-Day Slump: Futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are modestly higher today, as markets try to shake off a three-day skid ahead of Powell's big speech at Jackson Hole.

• 🤖 Tech on the Tumble? Nvidia slides on reports of halting its H20 AI chip production for China… however Jensen Huang is in talks for a potential new computer chip designed for China.

• 🛍️ Retail's Not Dead-It's Selectively Shopping: Ross Stores and TJ Maxx beat earnings and pop, while Intuit tanks nearly 6% on weak guidance. Retailers are riding spending resilience-but not everyone's invited to the party.

• 🧠 Treasury Calm, Yield Curve Tug-of‑War: The 10‑year Treasury yield steadies just around 4.3%, as investors debate whether Powell will keep things conservative or hint at cuts.

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💸 Trade Talk

Nvidia's not just cutting China off - it's negotiating a workaround. CEO Jensen Huang says they're in talks with U.S. regulators to ship a more advanced AI chip to China that still complies with export controls. Yep, you read that right.

🧠 Big Brain Energy

71% - That’s the market-implied probability of a Fed rate cut in September.

Translation: Powell hasn’t even spoken yet, and Wall Street already flinched.

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🧨The Outrage Meter

Intuit beat on earnings, but tanked nearly 6% after whispering, "Don't expect much from here." Despite topping Q2 estimates, the TurboTax parent dropped a cold splash of reality with weak forward guidance - and investors noped out fast.

Classic: crush expectations, then crush hopes. If you're going to raise prices and lower the outlook, at least buy us dinner first, Intuit.

🤔What Do You Think?

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