🛒 Setting Up for the Biggest Online Shopping Day of the Year

Welcome to the final Sunday before December kicks off.

Author

Jason Paloma
November 30, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

🛒 Setting Up for the Biggest Online Shopping Day of the Year

Welcome to the final Sunday before December kicks off. Markets remain closed today, giving traders one more day to digest Black Friday's preliminary results before Cyber Monday's $14.2 billion projected bonanza hits tomorrow.

U.S. stock markets reopen Monday morning at 9:30am ET with regular hours, which means full trading sessions resume just as Cyber Monday becomes the single largest online shopping day of the year. The convergence of market reopening and peak consumer spending makes Monday particularly interesting for anyone watching retail and economic indicators.

But before we get there, let's talk about what this week's shopping data means, what December historically brings for markets, and why year-end positioning matters more than usual in 2025.

[sponsored]
Our partners at ProsperityPub recently highlighted how one analyst is using his Viral Stock Scanner to identify viral stocks before they explode. This powerful tool flags what he calls "social momentum" on X – the world’s biggest source of financial chatter for retail traders. Doing this has helped him catch several moves that wouldn't have shown up on any charts until it was already too late.

He wants to show you how you can get in on the very next name the Viral Stock Scanner is flagging. So if you'd like to take a look... Here's where to go now.

[sponsored]

Wall Street’s Daily Edge Now Explained

Every day at 4PM the market shifts. This free 7-page guide breaks down a simple way to take advantage of it. No fluff, just the core strategy. Grab your download now.
By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from The TradingPub and its partners (privacy policy)

📝 Cyber Monday Preview: The Numbers That Matter

Cyber Monday is projected to generate $14.2 billion in U.S. online sales, up 6.3% from last year. That's $3.4 billion more than Black Friday's online totals - a staggering 31% premium that makes it the undisputed champion of e-commerce days.

Why Cyber Monday Dominates: Cyber Monday has exceeded Black Friday in online sales every year from 2021 through 2024, and 2025 should continue that trend. The reasons are simple - Monday is a workday (hello, corporate internet connections), people have had the weekend to browse and compare prices, and the deals are often just as good or better than Friday.

Mobile devices are expected to drive 56% of holiday online spending, or roughly $142 billion total. For Cyber Monday specifically, mobile spending accounted for 57% of sales in 2024 - $7.6 billion purchased from phones. That's people shopping from their desks, their couches, and probably their commutes.

Peak Spending Window: The heaviest spending occurs between 8pm and 10pm ET, when consumers spent $15.8 million per minute in 2024. That's the prime-time shopping window when people are home from work, kids are (hopefully) in bed, and the credit cards come out.

Buy Now, Pay Later Explosion: BNPL spending is projected to hit $1.04 billion on Cyber Monday alone, up 5% from last year. For the full holiday season, BNPL is expected to reach $20.2 billion. That's not just a payment method - it's a signal that consumers are stretching their budgets using financial tools to maintain spending levels they otherwise couldn't afford.

[sponsored]
Our partners at Big Trends want to show you how they trade SPY with a plan - Not a prayer.

The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is the most liquid name in the market — but most traders miss its biggest moves. Why? Because those moves often happen overnight. That’s why we built the Overnight SPY Trader strategy — and you can get the full breakdown in this brand-new free report: Download your FREE Overnight SPY Trader Playbook.
(by clicking you agree to receive communications from BigTrends, privacy policy here)

🏃‍♂️ Cyber Week in Total: The Five-Day Sprint

That AI number deserves attention. We're not just talking about AI-powered product recommendations (though those are everywhere). This includes AI-driven customer service, automated pricing optimization, and increasingly sophisticated chatbots handling everything from size questions to shipping inquiries. Retailers with AI agents on their sites experienced seven times the sales growth (13%) compared to those without (2%) over the past seven weeks.

Category Performance: Electronics historically dominate Cyber Monday, with discounts reaching up to 31% in 2024. Toys followed at 27% off, and apparel hit 23% discounts. These are the categories driving traffic and conversions.

[sponsored]
Our partners at Brownstone Research have identified what could be an interesting development in the AI space. Tech analyst Jeff Brown - who previously recommended Tesla before its significant surge - believes while everyone thinks Elon's empire is crumbling, there's a $25 trillion revolution brewing that could 10X Tesla's past success. Click here to see what he uncovered.

[sponsored]

$5 dividend stock powers AI revolution

  • Builds Nvidia's AI servers

  • Pays a dividend nearly 2.5x the market average

  • AI revenue surpassing iPhone business. 

🤔 What Monday's Data Means for Markets

Consumer spending represents approximately 70% of U.S. GDP, which makes Cyber Monday more than just a retail event - it's an economic barometer with direct market implications.

Strong Cyber Monday numbers typically boost retail stocks and the broader consumer discretionary sector. Historical data shows retail stocks averaged 5% returns during Black Friday periods compared to 3% for the S&P 500 between 2007-2017.

Weak numbers, on the other hand, raise questions about consumer confidence and spending power heading into the final month of the year. With holiday retail sales projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, missing projections would send a concerning signal about the health of the consumer economy.

Payment processor stocks (Visa, Mastercard, PayPal) often react to Cyber Monday volume data. E-commerce enablers (Shopify, Amazon Web Services) respond to digital infrastructure demands. And logistics companies (FedEx, UPS) track shipping volume spikes.

[sponsored]
For traders looking to learn about earnings volatility and market momentum, Stock Earnings has just released their premium research revealing three U.S. AI infrastructure companies leading Wall Street's rotation into hardware. While retail traders chase hype, hedge funds are rotating into the hardware layer powering AI itself. These aren't speculative startups - they're profitable infrastructure giants fueling AI's growth phase. Access your premium research report now and see what institutional money is tracking.
(**By clicking this link you agree to receive emails from StockEarnings and our affiliates. You can opt out at any time.  Privacy Policy. **)

[sponsored]

Wall Street’s quietly buying these 3 AI infrastructure plays

AI headlines are everywhere but the real money is being made behind the scenes.

While retail traders chase hype, hedge funds are rotating into the hardware layer powering AI itself. Our new research reveals three U.S. companies leading this quiet surge. These aren’t speculative startups, they're profitable infrastructure giants fueling AI’s next trillion-dollar phase.

👉 Access your premium research report now
(**By clicking this link you agree to receive emails from StockEarnings and our affiliates. You can opt out at any time.  Privacy Policy. **)

🎄 December's Historical Strength: The Santa Rally Question

December is statistically the strongest month for equities, and we're about to find out if 2025 follows the pattern.

The S&P 500 has averaged a 3.1% gain over November and December since 1945, delivering positive returns 76% of the time. That's not luck - that's consistent historical performance driven by year-end portfolio positioning, tax considerations, and the psychological phenomenon known as the Santa Claus Rally.

The Santa Claus Rally specifically refers to the final five trading days of December plus the first two trading days of January. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns during this period 79% of the time, with an average gain of 1.3%. The Nasdaq performs even better, averaging 3.1% gains during the same window.

Why It Happens: Several factors drive year-end strength. Tax-loss harvesting subsides after mid-December, removing selling pressure. Portfolio managers engage in "window dressing" - buying winners to make year-end holdings look attractive. Holiday optimism and lower trading volumes create conditions where relatively small buying activity can move prices substantially.

2025's Setup: The S&P 500 has pulled back about 5% recently, creating what some analysts view as a more favorable setup for a potential year-end rally. About 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates so far - the highest beat rate since 2021.

[sponsored]
With 2026 quickly approaching, our friend Alexander Green over at The Oxford Club says this is his pick for the No. 1 stock for 2026. It’s UP for the year, it’s bringing in a fortune, and it’s got thousands of patents, which makes it one of the most well-protected companies on Earth.

👀 The Complications: Why 2025 Isn't Guaranteed

Of course, historical patterns don't guarantee future results. 2025 brings specific challenges that could affect December's typical patterns.

Valuation Concerns: Tech stocks in particular have seen massive runs in 2025, and November's pullback reflected growing unease about AI bubble risks. When valuations get stretched, seasonal patterns sometimes take a backseat to fundamental reality checks.

Federal Reserve Uncertainty: The market's currently pricing in the possibility of a December rate cut, but Fed policy remains unpredictable. Hawkish surprises have historically affected holiday market patterns.

Government Dysfunction: The recent 31-day government shutdown demonstrated political paralysis, and the potential for year-end budget battles could create volatility that affects seasonal strength.

Tariff Anxiety: Trade policy remains a wildcard, with tariffs continuing to impact consumer prices and corporate margins. Any escalation in trade tensions could quickly affect market dynamics.

[sponsored]
Our partners at Decentralized Masters are warning that the Fed's building a new money system. Digital. Programmable. Government-controlled. It's called Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). And unlike cash, these follow government rules, not yours.

💥 Year-End Positioning: Themes That Drive Market Action

As December begins, several key themes will drive market action:

Consumer Health: Monday's Cyber Monday data provides the first real test of whether Americans have enough purchasing power left for a strong holiday finish. Consumers planned to spend 4% less this Black Friday season, and Cyber Monday will show if that caution persists.

Tech Leadership: The Nasdaq's performance in December will signal whether AI-driven stocks can sustain their leadership or if rotation into value sectors accelerates. The Nasdaq is down more than 3% in November, marking a rare pullback after strong year-to-date gains.

Small-Cap Patterns: The January Effect - when small caps traditionally outperform large caps - often starts in late December. Year-end tax selling sometimes creates opportunities in smaller stocks, and December could see early positioning ahead of the January phenomenon.

Crypto Volatility: Bitcoin and other digital assets continue trading through the weekend and will react to any macro developments that emerge. Weekend crypto moves sometimes foreshadow Monday morning equity sentiment.

🎬 Bottom Line

Tomorrow marks the beginning of the final month of 2025, and it kicks off with Cyber Monday's $14.2 billion projected online shopping extravaganza. Markets reopen with regular hours just as America goes on its biggest digital spending spree of the year.

The data that flows in tomorrow will provide crucial insight into consumer spending power, economic health, and retail positioning heading into year-end. Strong Cyber Monday performance could fuel optimism for the holiday quarter and support the seasonal December patterns that historically lift markets.

December is traditionally the strongest month for equities, and with the S&P 500 up over 13% year-to-date through mid-November, conditions exist for a solid finish to 2025. But valuations are stretched, the Fed remains unpredictable, and consumers are showing signs of strain.

Whether December delivers its typical seasonal strength or faces headwinds depends on how the next 30 days unfold. Tomorrow's Cyber Monday performance will give us the first major data point of December, and markets will react accordingly.

Regular newsletters resume Monday as markets reopen and the final trading month of 2025 begins. Until then, enjoy the last quiet Sunday before the December sprint kicks off.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

⚠️ WARNING: Market data is subject to rapid change. Verify current information before making trading decisions.

DISCLAIMER: Stocks and options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the stocks and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell stocks or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in the linked report. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc., discussed in the linked report are for illustrative purposes only and not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. For full disclaimer information, click here.