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- 🍗 Stocks Stage Pre-Turkey Rally as Rate Cut Hopes Lift Spirits
🍗 Stocks Stage Pre-Turkey Rally as Rate Cut Hopes Lift Spirits
Markets opened Wednesday with a spring in their step...

😎 Market Vibes
🍗 Stocks Stage Pre-Turkey Rally as Rate Cut Hopes Lift Spirits
Markets opened Wednesday with a spring in their step, as traders embraced what's quickly becoming a tradition: the Thanksgiving week rally. The S&P 500 climbed to 6,788 around the opening bell, the Nasdaq hit 23,025, and the Dow surged past 47,112 - all riding a wave of optimism about the Fed's December plans. Treasury yields slipping to 4.00% didn't hurt either, as bond traders increasingly bet that Powell and company will deliver another quarter-point cut at their final 2025 meeting. With an 83% probability now priced in for a December rate reduction, markets are basically treating it like a done deal - though nothing's certain until the gavel drops.
The catalyst for today's bullish mood? A combination of softer labor data and moderating inflation signals that suggest the Fed can keep easing without worrying about reigniting price pressures. When you've got a central bank willing to play Santa Claus in December, markets tend to respond positively.
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🌊 Bitcoin Treads Water Around $87K as Institutional Interest Quietly Builds
While markets were busy celebrating rate-cut prospects, Bitcoin spent Wednesday morning stuck in a frustrating range around $87,000 - a far cry from its October highs above $126,000. The 30% pullback from those record levels has tested the resolve of even the most dedicated holders, but beneath the surface, something interesting is happening: institutional money keeps flowing in.
BlackRock's IBIT ETF continues seeing net inflows despite Bitcoin's recent volatility, suggesting large players are steadily accumulating rather than trying to time the exact bottom. Fidelity's FBTC shows similarly stubborn resilience. Meanwhile, whale wallets holding at least 100 BTC have increased by roughly 91 addresses since mid-November, indicating that deep-pocketed investors are using this downturn to quietly stack more coins. The crypto Fear and Greed Index remains stuck at "Extreme Fear" (15), which historically has preceded some notable rebounds.
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📈 Gold Keeps Grinding Higher as Precious Metals Shine
If you thought gold was done making new highs, think again. The yellow metal pushed toward $4,200 per ounce on Wednesday morning, extending its remarkable 2025 run and reminding everyone why it's called a safe haven. Gold futures climbed 0.86% to around $4,201, while silver joined the party with a 1.19% pop to roughly $51.70. This isn't just fear-buying or inflation hedging anymore - this is a full-blown structural shift in how both retail and institutional money view precious metals.
Central banks globally have been hoarding gold like it's going out of style, while retail investors increasingly view metals as portfolio insurance against political instability, debt concerns, and currency devaluation. The Bloomberg report about Bank of England staff working overnight shifts to dig out gold bars for delivery tells you everything you need to know about current demand intensity.
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⚡️ Oil Stumbles While Energy Sector Searches for Direction
Crude oil couldn't catch a bid Wednesday morning, with WTI futures hovering around $58 per barrel and showing little conviction either way. The energy complex remains caught between competing narratives: recession fears that threaten demand, OPEC+ production decisions that affect supply, and trade tensions that could reshape global oil flows. Brent crude similarly treaded water near $62, reflecting a market that frankly doesn't know what to do with itself.
The broader commodity picture shows interesting divergences - gold surging, oil stuck, and natural gas finding some support around $4.50. This isn't your grandfather's commodity supercycle; it's a selective rotation where some raw materials are absolute rockstars while others can't find a pulse.
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🚜 Earnings Season Winds Down with Deere and Chinese Names on Deck
Wednesday's earnings calendar is lighter than a Thanksgiving turkey wishbone, with most companies wisely choosing to report either before the holiday or waiting until next week. The headline act today is Deere (DE), the agricultural equipment giant that's expected to post earnings around $3.88 per share on revenue near $9.88 billion. Deere's results will offer insights into farmer sentiment and equipment spending - not exactly the sexiest topic, but agricultural machinery sales are actually a decent leading indicator for rural economic health.
Chinese names dominate the rest of today's slate: Li Auto, EHang Holdings, Cheetah Mobile, and Super Hi International all report results. Li Auto's expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.04 per share on $3.76 billion in revenue, giving investors a fresh look at China's electric vehicle market dynamics. For those wondering if yesterday's after-hours reports are moving markets today: Best Buy and Kohl's both crushed expectations in their Tuesday reports, with Kohl's jumping 23% after beating consensus estimates despite ongoing retail challenges.
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🏦 Fed Watch: December Cut Odds Hit 83% as Powell's Dovish Door Creaks Open
The big macro story heading into Thanksgiving remains the Federal Reserve's December 10th meeting and whether policymakers will deliver a third consecutive rate cut. Market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 83% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, which would bring the fed funds rate down to 3.50-3.75%. That's a dramatic shift from just a few weeks ago when Fed Chair Powell warned that a December cut was "not a foregone conclusion. Far from it."
What changed? Softer labor market data, moderating inflation signals, and a growing chorus of Fed officials signaling openness to further easing. New York Fed President John Williams said he sees room for "further adjustment in the near term." Mary Daly and Christopher Waller have also struck dovish tones. The 10-year Treasury yield responding by dropping to 4.00% tells you bond traders believe the Fed's easing cycle has more room to run.
The real question isn't whether they cut in December - it's what happens in 2026. Will the Fed pause after three cuts to assess economic conditions, or will they keep the easing pedal to the metal? Oxford Economics expects a pause followed by quarterly cuts throughout 2026, but market conditions can shift faster than Powell's carefully calibrated forward guidance.
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🎬 Bottom Line
Wednesday's pre-Thanksgiving trading session gave bulls exactly what they wanted: rising equity prices, falling bond yields, and growing confidence that the Fed will keep supporting markets with December rate cuts. The S&P 500 climbing toward 6,800, the Nasdaq pushing past 23,000, and the Dow extending its winning streak all suggest investors are feeling generous with their risk appetite heading into turkey day.
But beneath the surface optimism, some interesting divergences demand attention. Bitcoin's struggle around $87,000 despite institutional accumulation suggests crypto markets aren't quite ready for their next leg higher. Gold's relentless march toward $4,200 indicates serious money is still seeking safe havens despite equity exuberance. And oil's inability to find any momentum whatsoever hints that global growth concerns haven't completely disappeared.
As markets head into shortened Thanksgiving week trading (closed Thursday, early close Friday), volume could thin out and volatility could potentially spike on lighter participation. The real test comes in December when the Fed delivers its decision, earnings season kicks back into high gear, and investors face year-end positioning decisions. For now, enjoy the turkey and the gains - but keep one eye on those December Fed minutes.
🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week
Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:
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