📅 Ten Months After Liberation Day

😎 Market Vibes

🌎 Ten Months After Liberation Day: How Tariffs Reshaped Everything

It's been just over ten months since April 2, 2025 - the day the White House declared "Liberation Day," announcing sweeping tariffs that would fundamentally reshape global trade. Now, in early February 2026, we can assess what actually happened. A universal 10% tariff hit nearly all U.S. imports starting April 5, with additional country-specific rates targeting 57 nations at levels reaching as high as 50%.

The market's reaction was brutal. The U.S. stock market plunged 12.4% in the week following the announcement - the biggest drop since COVID-19. By April 9, panic forced a 90-day pause on higher country-specific tariffs, though the 10% baseline remained. Despite the pause, the average U.S. tariff rate hit 27% - the highest level in over a century.

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💼 The Jobs Promise That Didn't Deliver

The administration declared on Liberation Day that "jobs and factories will come roaring back." Ten months later, in early 2026, the reality looks different. Manufacturing employment dropped every month from April through November 2025, with about 67,000 fewer Americans employed in manufacturing by year-end. Manufacturing construction spending - the measure of new factories being built - also declined throughout 2025.

Domestic producers reported increased interest but few commitments from American brands. The imported materials, components, and machinery U.S. manufacturers rely on are being heavily taxed, forcing some to close altogether. The near-shoring boom did benefit regions like Northern Mexico and the American Southeast, but the factory renaissance promised for the U.S. heartland never materialized through 2025.

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💰 The Trade Deficit Paradox

Here's the irony: the trade deficit got worse before it could get better. Through the first five months of 2025, the goods trade deficit was $175 billion larger than the same period in 2024. Why? Importers rushed to stockpile inventory before tariffs hit. Pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly sped up imports from Ireland in spring 2025, creating the exact opposite effect intended.

The tariff revenue story is equally complicated. The administration claimed $6 trillion over a decade, projecting "$2 billion a day" in collections. Treasury data shows collections did surge - reaching $97.3 billion by July 1, 2025, up 110% from the same period in 2024. But that's nowhere near enough to replace income taxes as suggested. The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center estimates tariffs generated $189 billion in 2025 - substantial, but a fraction of what's needed to fund the government.

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🇨🇳 China Lost the Battle, Won the War

Chinese exports to the U.S. declined 18.9% to $385.9 billion over the first 11 months of 2025 - a massive hit. But here's the twist: China's global trade surplus surged past $1 trillion for the first time in history in November 2025. They simply pivoted to other Asian markets.

After tariffs spiraled through spring and summer 2025, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods hit 145% while Chinese retaliatory tariffs reached 125%. The result? China strengthened trade ties throughout Asia, the Middle East, and Africa while American exporters faced unprecedented barriers to the world's second-largest economy.

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⚖️ The Legal Battle That Won't End

The tariff saga isn't just economic - it's constitutional. The use of IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) to invoke sweeping tariffs is at the center of a landmark Supreme Court case. Dozens of businesses and states have challenged whether the executive branch can wield tariff power so broadly without legislative approval.

In May 2025, the United States Court of International Trade ruled that the administration overstepped its authority and ordered the Liberation Day tariffs vacated. The ruling was upheld by the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals in August 2025. The administration appealed to the Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments in November 2025. As we enter February 2026, the tariffs remain in effect while appeals are considered - now approaching ten months of legal limbo.

The uncertainty has created a strange market dynamic. Businesses can't plan long-term because they don't know if tariffs will be struck down. Importers are paying billions in duties that might be refundable. And the entire "managed trade" framework could collapse with a single Supreme Court ruling. That uncertainty is precisely what makes safe-haven assets appealing right now.

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💵 The Inflation Nobody Expected

One of the most underreported consequences of Liberation Day has been persistent inflation throughout 2025. The combination of tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and near-shoring costs pushed consumer prices higher through the year. The Fed found itself caught between tariff-induced inflation and slowing economic growth - the classic stagflation trap.

Interest rates stayed elevated longer than anticipated. The market initially priced in multiple rate cuts for 2025, but tariff-driven price pressures forced the Fed to stay cautious. Real interest rates - adjusted for inflation - remained negative through much of 2025, eroding the purchasing power of cash and bonds sitting in traditional portfolios.

This environment has been particularly challenging for retirees and savers heading into 2026. The dollars in their accounts buy less each month, while the stock market volatility created by tariff announcements throughout 2025 made traditional equity allocations nerve-wracking. It's the kind of environment that historically drives allocation toward hard assets with intrinsic value - assets that can't be printed or devalued by policy decisions.

📌 Bottom Line

Ten months after Liberation Day, as we enter February 2026, the results are mixed at best. Manufacturing jobs didn't return through 2025. The trade deficit initially worsened. The national debt jumped $2 trillion in eight months. Legal challenges threaten the entire framework. But the global system did fundamentally change - from efficiency-focused globalization to security-focused regionalization.

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