The Fed's 98% chance of a September rate cut

And Treasury Secretary Bessent just crashed the party demanding a jumbo 50bp slice instead of the 25bp appetizer everyone ordered.

Author

Jason Paloma
August 13, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

😎 Market Vibes

Markets are having their main character moment after yesterday's CPI cooldown sparked rate cut fever across Wall Street. While everyone's celebrating like the Fed already cut rates, Treasury Secretary Bessent just crashed the party demanding a jumbo 50bp slice instead of the 25bp appetizer everyone ordered.

Bitcoin's flexing above $119K, the S&P's hitting fresh records, and crypto exchanges are IPO'ing at valuations that would make a 2021 SPAC blush. Classic August energy: when the news is supposed to be boring but the markets forgot to read the memo.

Buckle up, it's going to be a spicy one.

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✨ Euphoric and slightly delusional

💸 Trade Talk

The Fed's 98% chance of a September rate cut has traders acting like Christmas came early, but here's the thing - everyone knows what's coming, which means the real money was made weeks ago.

Now Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just cranked up the heat by calling for a 50 basis point cut instead of the wimpy 25bp everyone's expecting. His logic? The Fed should have cut in June and July if they'd known about those brutal job revisions, so now they need to "make up for lost time."

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🧠 Big Brain Energy

Crypto exchange Bullish is going public at $37 per share, valuing it at over $5 billion ahead of today's NYSE debut. But here’s the thing - they were profitable in 2023 with $150M in net income. But fast-forward to Q1 2025? That flipped to a brutal $349M loss.

🧨The Outrage Meter

All eyes are on Bullish IPO today.
Bullish debuted on the NYSE today despite posting a $349M loss last quarter. A $5B+ valuation and public listing would normally signal strength - but in this case, it's riding on past profitability and future optimism.

For retail traders, it raises a tough question: Is real performance still required, or is narrative the new currency?

🤔What Do You Think?

Is crypto still worth holding after all the hype, hacks, and ETF headlines?

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