😰 The Fed's Got Everyone on the Edge of Their Seats

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😎 Market Vibes

😰 The Fed's Got Everyone on the Edge of Their Seats

Markets opened Tuesday like a student right before finals - anxious, caffeinated, and trying not to panic. The S&P 500 dipped 0.1% at the open to around 6,840, the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%, while the Dow managed to scrape together a modest 0.2% gain. Everyone's playing it cool ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision, but the sweaty palms tell a different story.

The 10-year Treasury yield crept up to 4.18%, its highest level since October, because apparently bonds got the memo that inflation might stick around longer than that houseguest who "just needs a place to crash for a few days." With an 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut tomorrow baked into the market according to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders aren't worried about whether the Fed will cut - they're worried about what Chair Powell will say about cuts in 2026.

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🇨🇳 Nvidia Gets a Hall Pass to China (With Conditions)

In a plot twist nobody saw coming, President Trump announced via Truth Social that Nvidia can now ship its H200 AI chips to "approved customers" in China and other hotspots - but with a catch. The U.S. government wants a 25% cut of those sales. It's like your parents letting you go to the party, but only if you give them a quarter of your allowance first.

The news sent Nvidia shares higher in pre-market trading, though the real question is whether Beijing will even let Chinese companies buy them. Reports suggest China previously prohibited local firms from purchasing Nvidia's less advanced H20 chips, so this might be less of a game-changer and more of a symbolic gesture. Still, analysts at Bernstein initiated an outperform rating, noting that if Nvidia can ship to some Chinese customers, it represents a development for the chip giant's revenue outlook.

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🏊‍♂️ Bitcoin Treads Water While Gold Flexes

Bitcoin is hovering around the $90,000 mark this morning, down about 1-2% in the last 24 hours after briefly pushing above $92,000 earlier in the week. It's like watching someone try to maintain their dignity while standing on a wobbling surfboard. The crypto king remains well off its all-time high above $126,000 from just two months ago, and analysts are split on whether we're seeing a healthy consolidation or the beginning of a longer winter.

Gold, meanwhile, is sitting near $4,200, continuing its monster run that's seen it gain over 60% year-to-date. The yellow metal is benefiting from the same uncertainty that's making Bitcoin sweat - concerns about inflation persistence, rate cut trajectory, and general macro nervousness. Oil prices dipped slightly with WTI crude at about $58, down 0.4% as traders digest mixed economic signals.

The correlation between Bitcoin and equities has strengthened markedly this year, with crypto increasingly tracking stock market sentiment as traditional retail and institutional investors jumped in. As one analyst noted, Bitcoin's movements now follow stock market sentiment more than its own unique drivers, which might explain why it's acting more like a tech stock and less like "digital gold."

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🏠 Housing Stocks Take a Tumble on Soft Demand

Homebuilder Toll Brothers reported earnings that gave the sector a case of the Mondays (even though it's Tuesday). The company's EPS missed analysts' consensus despite revenue beating expectations, and management's comments about "soft demand across many markets" sent their stock down 5% in pre-market trading. Competing homebuilder stocks also slipped in sympathy, because misery loves company in the housing sector.

The weakness comes as mortgage rates remain elevated and potential buyers continue playing the waiting game, hoping for better financing conditions. The Fed's rate cut tomorrow might affect sentiment, but the reality is that even with cuts, mortgage rates won't magically return to the pandemic-era lows. The housing market is stuck in this awkward phase where sellers don't want to give up their 3% mortgages and buyers don't want to take on 7% mortgages, so everyone just stares at each other across the metaphorical table.

CVS Health provided a rare bright spot, jumping 3% in early trading after raising its full-year 2025 guidance and citing "meaningful momentum across our business." AutoZone wasn't as fortunate, dropping 2.5% after quarterly earnings missed consensus - apparently people are stretching their auto maintenance a bit longer in this economy.

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Sell Nvidia and replace it with WHAT?! The truth behind Eric Fry's off-the-wall trade idea…

Eric Fry is breaking ranks with Wall Street by saying "Sell Nvidia." Because history, he says, is repeating itself. In 2000, Eric Fry told Barron's that folks should sell one of the dot-com boom's most beloved stocks right before it fell more than 90%. Now, he says investors need to replace Nvidia stock with a much better alternative – before their money is wiped out. Get the details here — including free tickers and analysis.

🎥 The Media Merger Madness Continues

In a move that's either brilliant or bonkers (time will tell), Paramount Skydance made a competing bid Monday for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering to buy all of WBD in a direct offer to shareholders. This comes just days after Netflix swooped in to snag WBD's studio and streaming business. Paramount shares rose 7% on the news, Netflix fell nearly 4%, while Warner Bros. stock popped 4% because being fought over is apparently good for the ego.

Analysts at Needham maintain a buy rating on Netflix and argue that Netflix doesn't actually need Warner Bros. Discovery. According to their take, "NFLX buying WBD would put $83B of additional value at risk of being disrupted by GenAI. Without WBD, NFLX is more global, more nimble, more tech-first, and has more flexibility with the Hollywood unions." Translation: sometimes the best acquisition is the one you don't make.

The media landscape is getting messier than a teenager's bedroom, with traditional studios trying to figure out how to compete in a streaming world while tech companies wonder if owning content is actually worth the headache. Add in the looming threat of AI-generated content, and you've got an industry in the middle of an existential crisis with a side of merger mania.

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Man who said "Buy Tesla" in 2018 now says...

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💦 IBM Makes a Big Splash in Data Streaming

IBM announced Monday that it's acquiring data streaming platform Confluent in a deal worth $11 billion, sending Confluent shares soaring 29% in pre-market trading. IBM stock, playing the role of the buyer paying the premium, sank about 1%. The acquisition gives IBM a major foothold in the real-time data streaming market, which has become increasingly critical as companies try to process and analyze data faster than ever.

Confluent, which was built around the open-source Apache Kafka platform, has become a go-to solution for companies that need to move data between systems in real-time. Think of it as the plumbing that helps data flow smoothly through modern tech infrastructure. IBM's bet is that owning this plumbing will be valuable as AI and real-time analytics become more central to business operations.

In other corporate news, Ares Management climbed nearly 8% on announcement that the company, which specializes in private credit, will be added to the S&P 500. Getting added to a major index is like getting invited to sit at the cool kids' table - it means automatic buying from index funds and more attention from institutional investors.

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🎬 Bottom Line

Tuesday's trading is all about waiting for the Fed. Markets opened cautiously lower as traders position themselves ahead of Wednesday's near-certain rate cut and more importantly, Powell's commentary about the 2026 outlook. The 10-year yield's continued climb suggests markets aren't entirely convinced the Fed will be as dovish as some hope, while Bitcoin's struggle to hold gains reflects broader uncertainty about risk assets.

The real action starts tomorrow at 2 PM ET when the Fed announces its decision and releases updated economic projections. Until then, expect markets to trade in a narrow range as nobody wants to make big bets before the Fed speaks. Keep an eye on the dollar, Treasury yields, and how crypto reacts - those three will give you the clearest signals about whether Powell's message lands as hawkish or dovish.

🔥 What’s Heating Up This Week

Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:

• Up to 10x Returns From the AI Energy Boom? ^[ad]

• Why December 2025 is different than I thought ^[ad]

• The NVDA, AMZN, TSLA selloff on the horizon ^[ad]

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