🏅 The Great Metals Mania

😎 Market Vibes

🏅 The Great Metals Mania: Gold, Silver & the Geopolitical Premium

This past week, precious metals went absolutely ballistic. Gold smashed past $4,600 per ounce for the first time ever, silver broke $90 and kept climbing to $92, and both metals are now up over 6% in just the first two weeks of 2026. To put this in perspective: gold surged 65% in 2025, while silver demolished it with a 150% gain. So what's fueling this? A toxic cocktail of geopolitical chaos, attacks on the Federal Reserve, and resource nationalism.

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🏦 The Powell Probe - When the Fed Becomes Political

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell revealed Sunday the DOJ served him with grand jury subpoenas as part of a criminal investigation into the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation. Powell's statement was blunt: "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."

The market response? Gold jumped 2% Monday morning, hitting $4,600 for the first time. Every living former Fed chair signed a statement calling it "an unprecedented attempt to use prosecutorial attacks to undermine" central bank independence.

Even Republicans balked. Senator Thom Tillis vowed to block any Trump Fed nominees until the investigation ends. When the institution controlling the world's reserve currency gets weaponized politically, money moves to assets governments can't print.

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🛢️ Venezuela, Iran, and Resource Nationalism

But Powell's just one thread. Trump ousted Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and now plans to manage the country's oil reserves - because most Venezuelan oil goes to China.

Meanwhile, Iran's regime is cracking down violently on massive anti-government protests. Hundreds dead, thousands detained. Senator Lindsey Graham is pushing for U.S. military strikes "sooner rather than later." Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran. The State Department told all U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately.

Daniel Casali from Evelyn Partners nailed it: "What Trump is doing now is trying to restrict resources that go to China, like Venezuelan oil. Resource nationalism can force up gold and silver prices."

When major powers weaponize critical resources, precious metals become the hedge everyone needs.

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💵 Silver's Supply Crisis - The $100 Target

While gold grabbed headlines, silver stole the show. Tuesday it broke $90, hitting $91.55. Wednesday it climbed to $92.53. That's a 27% gain so far in 2026, and analysts from Citi to Jupiter Asset Management are openly discussing $100 silver by mid-year.

The driver? Perfect storm of industrial demand meeting constrained supply. China implemented refined silver export controls January 1, immediately tightening global markets. Jupiter's Ned Naylor-Leyland noted: "Silver is basically disappearing now to China and India - there's about a $10 premium being paid in Shanghai."

Industrial demand keeps accelerating. Silver is essential for solar panels, cell phones, 5G, EVs, and AI applications. The Silver Institute projects another supply deficit in 2026.

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🏃‍♂️The Institutional Stampede

Here's what makes this different: it's not just retail panic-buying. Institutions are piling in too.

J.P. Morgan Research reports Q3 2025 investor and central bank gold demand hit 980 tonnes - over 50% higher than the previous four quarters. In dollar terms, that's approximately $109 billion of quarterly inflows, about 90% higher than average. J.P. Morgan's Gregory Shearer: "We believe central bank demand will remain elevated next year and have been encouraged by strong buying in Q3, even with much higher gold prices."

Gold's share of total global financial assets has risen to about 2.8% as of Q3 2025. But J.P. Morgan thinks there's room: "We still see the potential for this share to rise toward 4-5% over the coming years."

ETF inflows tell the same story. iShares Silver Trust reported record inflows. BlackRock's Evy Hambro explained they only started shifting into silver mining equities in 2024 once prices rose enough for companies to make decent returns. They're in now.

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🪄 The Forecasts - $5,000 Gold, $100 Silver?

J.P. Morgan forecasts gold pushing toward $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with $6,000 possible longer term. Their base case assumes continued strong investor and central bank demand averaging 585 tonnes per quarter. HSBC thinks trading momentum could carry prices to $5,000 in the first half of 2026.

Citi set three-month targets of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver. Jupiter's Ned Naylor-Leyland said it was "absolutely" possible for both to hit those milestones this year.

The bull case? Fed rate cuts later in 2026 make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. The dollar is expected to remain soft. Geopolitical tensions show zero signs of easing. And mounting U.S. fiscal deficits are encouraging gold demand.

The bear case? Some warn pullbacks could come given how quickly prices have run. UBS strategist Joni Teves said "it would be healthy" for consolidation before the next leg up. When silver climbed above $92 Wednesday, it pulled back Thursday on profit-taking.

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🤔 What This Means

Strip away the hype: precious metals are screaming that something fundamental has shifted. When gold surges 65% in a year and silver gains 150%, that's not normal market behavior. When both keep rallying into a new year despite already being at records, that's a statement.

The statement: trust in traditional financial institutions is eroding. Whether it's attacks on Fed independence, resource nationalism weaponizing commodities, or mounting fiscal deficits - investors are hedging against outcomes that seemed unthinkable years ago.

Gold and silver don't pay dividends or interest. They just sit there being shiny. The only reason they surge like this is because people lose faith in everything else. Right now, with Powell under criminal investigation, Iran on the brink, and Trump seizing Venezuelan oil fields, there's plenty to lose faith in.

📌 Bottom Line

Gold and silver aren't just hitting records - they're rewriting what "safe haven" means in 2026. When the Fed chairman faces criminal charges and major powers weaponize resources, traditional assumptions break down.

$5,000 gold and $100 silver aren't fantasies - they're legitimate analyst targets. Central banks are buying. Institutions are rotating in. Supply deficits persist. Geopolitical chaos isn't calming.

Does that mean metals only go up? Of course not. Pullbacks happen. If tensions ease or the Fed capitulates, both could consolidate fast.

But the bigger trend is unmistakable: faith in traditional financial institutions is being tested like never before. And when that happens, people run to assets that have held value for thousands of years. Right now, gold and silver aren't just commodities - they're a statement about where we are, and where we might be heading.

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✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

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