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- š¤ Traditional Markets Are Closed, But the Spending Continues
š¤ Traditional Markets Are Closed, But the Spending Continues
But the economy? The economy is very much awake...
Jason Paloma
November 29, 2025 ā¢ Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes
š Market Vibes
š¤ Traditional Markets Are Closed, But the Spending Continues
Happy Saturday. U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend, which means no S&P 500 updates, no Nasdaq drama, and absolutely zero Fed speeches to parse through. But the economy? The economy is very much awake.
Black Friday is now officially in the books, and early data suggests retailers are getting exactly what they hoped for - lots of shoppers spending slightly less money. It's the American consumer in 2025: showing up, but keeping the wallet tighter than usual.
While traditional markets take their weekend break, cryptocurrency continues its 24/7 grind. Bitcoin trades around the clock, 365 days a year, which means weekend volatility is always on the table.
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š Black Friday: The Preliminary Scorecard
The numbers are starting to roll in, and they paint an interesting picture of American consumer behavior under pressure.
Record Traffic, Cautious Spending: Early reports suggest Black Friday lived up to its billing as a major shopping day. 186.9 million shoppers were expected to hit stores and websites from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday - a record that would eclipse last year's 183.4 million.
But here's the twist: consumers planned to spend 4% less than last year even while showing up in droves. More people, less money per person. That's the mathematical reality of an affordability crisis.
Online Dominance Continues: Black Friday 2024 generated $10.8 billion in online sales, up 10.2% year-over-year. For 2025, projections called for $11.7 billion - an 8.3% increase. We'll get actual numbers in the coming days, but early indicators suggest online retail once again outperformed in-store shopping.
Mobile devices drove 57% of online Black Friday sales in 2024, and that percentage likely increased this year. People are literally shopping from their phones while digesting Thanksgiving dinner. That's efficiency.
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š Retail Winners and Losers: The Divergence Widens
If Friday's performance follows recent trends, the gap between retail's winners and losers just got wider.
Walmart's Dominance: Walmart reported revenue up 5.8% in Q3 with U.S. comparable sales rising 4.5%. The company positioned itself perfectly for Black Friday with competitive pricing and a robust omnichannel strategy. Middle-income families are flocking to the discounter, and even higher-income shoppers are trading down.
Walmart's e-commerce business now represents 18% of total revenue, up from 14.3% in 2023. That's a massive shift for a company that was primarily brick-and-mortar just a decade ago. The retailer's ability to leverage 4,600 stores as fulfillment hubs gives it a logistics advantage that's tough to beat.
Target's Struggles: Target's Q3 comparable sales dropped 2.7%, and the company cut its full-year profit guidance. While Walmart attracts shoppers with necessities, Target's focus on discretionary goods is proving to be a liability when budgets tighten.
Amazon's Scale: Amazon ran Black Friday deals from November 20 through November 28 - essentially turning "Black Friday" into "Black Week and a Half." The e-commerce giant boasts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer, a title it's held for nearly a decade. With unprecedented logistics capabilities and the ability to underprice competitors while maintaining margins, Amazon remains the 800-pound gorilla of online retail.
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š Consumer Confidence: Reading Between the Lines
The macro data tells us consumers are stressed, but they're still spending. Here's how to interpret that:
Consumer confidence hit one of the lowest levels on record in November, sitting just above the June 2022 low when inflation was raging. Yet people showed up to shop. That's not a contradiction - that's Americans prioritizing value and hunting for deals in a high-price environment.
Only 22% of shoppers planned to spend more this season, down from 31% in 2024. The cautious consumer is real, and it's affecting how retailers approach pricing and promotions.
The Categories That Moved: Electronics, toys, and apparel historically dominate Black Friday, and 2025 appears no different. Electronics saw discounts up to 31% in 2024, with toys at 27% off and apparel at 23% off. Those kinds of discounts drive traffic even when overall spending is down.šļø Tomorrow: Black Friday's Half-Day Trading
Markets reopen Friday morning for a shortened session. Trading runs from 9:30am to 1:00pm ET, giving traders just three and a half hours to make money or lose it before the weekend.
Light volume on Black Friday can lead to exaggerated moves. With fewer players in the market, individual trades can push prices around more dramatically than usual. It's like playing basketball with half a team - every shot matters more.
Pre-market futures will be worth watching Friday morning to gauge sentiment heading into the abbreviated session.
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š» Cyber Monday: The Bigger Prize Ahead
Black Friday was just the opening act. Cyber Monday is projected to hit $14.2 billion in U.S. online sales on December 1, making it the single largest online shopping day of the year.
That's $3.4 billion more than Black Friday's online totals - a 31% premium. Cyber Monday has exceeded Black Friday in online sales every year from 2021 through 2024, and 2025 should continue that trend.
Why Cyber Monday Matters More: Cyber Week as a whole (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) is expected to generate $43.7 billion in U.S. online sales, representing about 17% of the entire holiday shopping season compressed into just five days. That's an absurd concentration of consumer spending.
Mobile devices are projected to drive 56% of holiday online spending, or about $142 billion total. The shift to mobile commerce continues accelerating, which has major implications for how retailers structure their digital experiences.
Buy Now, Pay Later Surge: BNPL spending is projected to hit $1.04 billion on Cyber Monday alone, up 5% from 2024. For the full holiday season, BNPL transactions are expected to reach $20.2 billion. That's consumers using financial tools to stretch their purchasing power in a high-cost environment.
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š What Monday Brings
Markets reopen Monday, December 1, with regular hours (9:30am to 4:00pm ET). That's also Cyber Monday, which means real-time retail data will start flowing throughout the day.
Cyber Monday sales data serves as a key economic indicator for consumer confidence and spending power. Strong numbers typically boost retail stocks and consumer discretionary sectors. Weak numbers raise questions about holiday season forecasts and overall economic health.
December is historically a strong month for equities, but 2025 comes with extra baggage - tariff uncertainty, inflation concerns, and Federal Reserve speculation all loom over year-end trading.
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š¬ Bottom Line
We all are anxiously awaiting to see if Black Friday delivered on its promise of massive traffic with slightly constrained spending. The retail winners are companies that combine value pricing with operational excellence - Walmart and Amazon leading the pack, while Target struggles to find its footing.
The real test comes Monday with Cyber Monday. At $14.2 billion in projected online sales, it represents the single biggest revenue day of the retail year. Those numbers will set the tone for December and provide crucial insight into whether American consumers have enough left in the tank to carry the holiday season across the finish line.
For now, enjoy the weekend. Markets are closed, but the economy never really stops - it just shifts to different venues. Crypto keeps grinding, retailers are tallying Friday's receipts, and everyone's preparing for Monday's digital shopping frenzy.
See you Sunday for one more weekend update before Cyber Monday kicks off.
š„ Whatās Heating Up This Week
Markets are moving - here's whats heating up with our partners:
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