😎 Market Vibes

📅 What to Watch This Week: Bank Earnings Kick Off Q3 Season + Shutdown Drags On

Happy Sunday! While markets are closed today, this is the perfect time to get ahead of what's coming this week. And buckle up, this week kicks off with the big banks earnings, while the government shutdown continues with no end in sight.

Here's everything you need to know before markets open Monday morning.

🏦 Tuesday: The Banks Fire The Opening Shot

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) report Q3 earnings Tuesday morning before the bell, and these reports will set the tone for the entire Q3 earnings season.

Here's what analysts are watching:

JPMorgan (JPM)

• Expected EPS: Around $3.99-$4.00 (consensus varies by source)

• Expected Revenue: ~$41.6 billion

• Key Focus: Net interest income (analysts expect ~$22.9B), investment banking fees (up 29%+ in Q2), and credit quality

JPM's Q3 estimates have been steadily climbing over the past few weeks - always a bullish sign heading into earnings. CEO Jamie Dimon will likely address the economic outlook, geopolitical risks, and what they're seeing from consumers.

Wells Fargo (WFC)

• Expected EPS: Around $1.42

• Expected Revenue: ~$20.4 billion

• Key Focus: Cost management, fee income growth, and how they're navigating margin pressure

Wells Fargo estimates have been more stable (barely moved), but the stock has been under pressure lately. A beat here could trigger movement.

Why This Matters:
Bank earnings are the economic canary in the coal mine. If JPM and Wells report strong consumer spending, healthy credit quality, and optimistic guidance, it validates the soft-landing narrative and could influence the broader market direction. If they sound cautious or report deteriorating credit metrics, expect potential volatility.

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📊 The Rest of The Week: More Banks + Consumer Bellwethers

• Bank of America (BAC) - Second-largest U.S. bank, watch consumer banking strength

• Goldman Sachs (GS) - Investment banking fees and trading revenue are key

• Citigroup (C) - Always a wildcard

• BlackRock (BLK) - Asset management giant, watch for commentary on market inflows

• United Airlines (UAL) - Travel/consumer spending indicator

  American Express (AXP) - Premium consumer spending gauge

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🏛️ The Government Shutdown

The government shutdown is still happening, making this officially longer than most recent shutdowns. Markets have been shrugging it off so far, but cracks are starting to show.

What's Delayed:

• Monthly jobs report (was supposed to drop Friday, Oct 3rd - still MIA)

• Inflation data releases

• GDP updates

• Consumer sentiment data (we got preliminary Michigan sentiment Friday, but federal data remains frozen)

What It Means:
The Fed is flying blind without official employment and inflation data. They're leaning heavily on private reports like ADP (which showed a -32,000 drop in private payrolls in September - yikes). Markets are still pricing in a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October meeting, but the longer this drags on, the messier Fed decision-making becomes.

Economic Impact:
Historical precedent suggests each week of shutdown drags 0.1-0.2% off quarterly GDP growth. We're now looking at a potential 0.3% hit to Q4 GDP if this stretches into a third week.

The wildcard? President Trump's threat to fire roughly 750,000 federal workers could have real spillover effects into the private sector if it actually happens.

Despite all this, the S&P 500 has gone 114 trading sessions without a 5% pullback - the longest streak since July. Something's gotta give eventually.

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💰 What's Been Moving Lately: AI, Gold, and Crypto

While we wait for earnings and the shutdown soap opera to resolve, here's what's been showing strength:

Bitcoin: Still hovering near $125K after hitting all-time highs last week. October "Uptober" seasonality is in full effect.

Gold: Sitting above $4,000 per ounce. Safe-haven demand remains elevated as uncertainty persists.

AI Stocks: The Nasdaq hit fresh record highs last week despite everything. AI infrastructure spending continues at a rapid pace.

Financials: Bank stocks have been under pressure lately, but the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) could see movement if Tuesday's earnings are strong.

Our partners at Crypto 101 are watching the crypto setup very closely this week.

Bryce Paul from Crypto 101 is watching Q4 crypto markets heat up. October, November, December - historically crypto's "money months" - are here, and this year has a perfect storm: Fed rate cuts, 90+ altcoin ETFs pending approval, and institutional adoption at all-time highs. Bitcoin could surge toward $160,000+ in Q4, but the real alpha might be in altcoins positioned to outperform by 3-10x during Q4 bull runs. The next 90 days could determine your crypto returns for the entire year.

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🔮 Bottom Line: This Week Sets The Tone for Q4

Bank earnings this week could tell us whether the economy is actually as strong as the stock market suggests. If JPM and Wells deliver beats and optimistic commentary, we could see continued momentum into year-end.

If they sound cautious or credit metrics deteriorate, we'll get the pullback many have been anticipating.

Either way, this is the week that matters. The government shutdown circus will eventually end (it always does), but Q3 earnings will influence market direction through the end of the year.

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There are more questions than answers right now in Q4. Will the market keep rallying or are we staring down a major pullback? Will Trump's new tariffs shake things up again? Truth is, nobody really knows. But you can stay ahead of the crowd if you focus on what actually matters - real market data that cuts through the noise. That's exactly what you'll get inside The Opening and Closing Playbooks. Every market day, Graham Lindman and Nate Tucci go live to show traders what's moving, where big money is flowing, and how they're planning to trade it. With their combined 25 years of experience in the markets, they turn information into simple, actionable setups. Tap this link for the full scoop.

✌️ Thanks for vibing with us.

⚠️ WARNING: Market data is subject to rapid change. Verify current information before making trading decisions.

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